Traders assign a 96.7% probability to no new country formally joining the Abraham Accords by August 31, reflecting the absence of active diplomatic processes capable of producing a signed normalization agreement in the remaining days. Kazakhstan formalized accession in early 2026 and Somaliland pledged participation following Israel’s December 2025 recognition of its independence, yet these steps have not generated follow-on momentum among Arab states. Potential candidates such as Saudi Arabia continue to condition any move on concrete progress toward a Palestinian state, while exploratory contacts with Syria and Lebanon remain stalled amid ongoing security operations and unresolved regional tensions. Diplomatic normalization typically requires extended negotiations, public announcements, and formal ceremonies that cannot be compressed into the narrow remaining window. A late surprise announcement involving a smaller state already maintaining ties with Israel remains theoretically possible but lacks supporting evidence in current reporting.