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Politik·ICC

Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?

icon for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
Politik·ICC

Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?

13% Chance
Polymarket

$99,211 Vol.

13% Chance
Polymarket

$99,211 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof. A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal. Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market. The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. The ICJ case *South Africa v. Israel* remains in its written-pleadings phase, with South Africa’s reply due only in November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder in 2029 following the court’s May 2026 order extending deadlines. No merits hearing or final judgment on whether Israel violated the Genocide Convention is scheduled before the market’s December 2027 cutoff. The ICC’s November 2024 arrest warrants target Israeli officials for war crimes and crimes against humanity, not genocide, and Israel does not recognize the court’s jurisdiction. These procedural timelines, the high evidentiary threshold for proving genocidal intent under the Convention, and limited enforcement mechanisms underpin traders’ strong consensus that no international court will issue a formal finding of genocide liability by the resolution date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.

A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.

Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.

The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$99,211
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof. A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal. Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market. The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof. A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal. Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market. The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. The ICJ case *South Africa v. Israel* remains in its written-pleadings phase, with South Africa’s reply due only in November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder in 2029 following the court’s May 2026 order extending deadlines. No merits hearing or final judgment on whether Israel violated the Genocide Convention is scheduled before the market’s December 2027 cutoff. The ICC’s November 2024 arrest warrants target Israeli officials for war crimes and crimes against humanity, not genocide, and Israel does not recognize the court’s jurisdiction. These procedural timelines, the high evidentiary threshold for proving genocidal intent under the Convention, and limited enforcement mechanisms underpin traders’ strong consensus that no international court will issue a formal finding of genocide liability by the resolution date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.

A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.

Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.

The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$99,211
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof. A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal. Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market. The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket, auf dem Händler „Ja"- oder „Nein"-Anteile kaufen und verkaufen, je nachdem, ob sie glauben, dass dieses Ereignis eintreten wird. Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit laut Community liegt bei 13% für „Yes". Wird „Ja" beispielsweise bei 13¢ gehandelt, schätzt der Markt die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Eintretens auf 13%. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen und Informationen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $99.2K generiert, seit der Markt am Jun 29, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

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Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit für „Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?" liegt bei 13% für „Yes". Das bedeutet, die Polymarket-Community glaubt derzeit, dass eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 13% besteht, dass dieses Ereignis eintritt. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit auf Basis tatsächlicher Handelsgeschäfte aktualisiert und liefern ein ständig aktualisiertes Signal dessen, was der Markt erwartet.

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