Recent surges in demand for Anthropic’s Claude large language models have triggered repeated overload incidents, including major outages on August 5 affecting multiple frontier models for over seven hours and additional disruptions on August 13–15 involving elevated errors and 529 status codes across the API, claude.ai, and Claude Code. These events, driven by high traffic and scaling challenges rather than isolated failures, have positioned traders to favor 8–10 downtime days as the most likely total for August. With roughly half the month elapsed and no announced infrastructure upgrades yet addressing the root capacity constraints, the market-implied odds reflect ongoing volatility typical of rapidly growing AI platforms under peak load.