The United States carried out targeted military operations in Venezuela in early January 2026 that resulted in the capture of Nicolás Maduro, after which interim authorities under Delcy Rodríguez assumed power. Since March, Washington and Caracas have restored full diplomatic relations, reopened the U.S. embassy, eased sanctions, and advanced oil and mineral cooperation agreements. Congress has not authorized or passed any declaration of war, and ongoing bilateral engagement—including trade deals and prisoner releases—has replaced earlier confrontation. These verified developments, combined with the absence of new escalatory actions in the past several months, explain why prediction markets assign negligible probability to a formal congressional declaration of war by mid-2026. Scheduled Venezuelan political transition steps and U.S. policy continuity remain the primary factors that could still influence the outcome.