Significant political risks and bipartisan opposition in Congress have anchored trader expectations against a Trump pardon for Ghislaine Maxwell by the end of 2026. Maxwell, convicted in 2021 on sex trafficking charges tied to Jeffrey Epstein, has sought clemency since her February 2026 congressional deposition, where she invoked the Fifth Amendment unless granted immunity or relief. Her attorney publicly argued for a conditional pardon in exchange for testimony, prompting a split within the House Oversight Committee, though Chair James Comer and several Republicans including Rep. Anna Paulina Luna have rejected the idea outright. Democrats have denounced any consideration, while victims’ advocates and polling trends underscore broad public resistance. Trump has repeatedly stated he has not seriously weighed the option and would consult the Department of Justice, with no executive action or DOJ review advancing in over a year. This combination of institutional pushback, timing constraints before the 2026 midterm cycle, and historical precedent for avoiding high-profile clemency in such cases sustains the market’s strong “No” consensus.