Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven Eurozone energy prices sharply higher, pushing April 2026 HICP inflation to 3.0%—its highest level since September 2023—and elevating upside risks to the ECB’s 2% target. Following the Governing Council’s decision on April 30 to hold the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00%, policymakers signaled readiness for tightening, with June 11 now viewed as the likely start of a modest normalization path. This backdrop has shifted trader consensus toward a 25 basis point hike, reflected in the 86.5% market-implied probability, while the slim 12.8% odds of no change capture lingering concerns over weak Q1 GDP growth of just 0.1%. Upcoming May CPI data and any de-escalation in energy markets remain key swing factors ahead of the meeting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 87%
No change 12.8%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$280,661 Vol.
$280,661 Vol.
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
13%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
87%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 87%
No change 12.8%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$280,661 Vol.
$280,661 Vol.
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
$56,999 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$46,070 Vol.
<1%
No change
$52,213 Vol.
13%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$72,144 Vol.
87%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$53,236 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven Eurozone energy prices sharply higher, pushing April 2026 HICP inflation to 3.0%—its highest level since September 2023—and elevating upside risks to the ECB’s 2% target. Following the Governing Council’s decision on April 30 to hold the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00%, policymakers signaled readiness for tightening, with June 11 now viewed as the likely start of a modest normalization path. This backdrop has shifted trader consensus toward a 25 basis point hike, reflected in the 86.5% market-implied probability, while the slim 12.8% odds of no change capture lingering concerns over weak Q1 GDP growth of just 0.1%. Upcoming May CPI data and any de-escalation in energy markets remain key swing factors ahead of the meeting.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$280,661Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven Eurozone energy prices sharply higher, pushing April 2026 HICP inflation to 3.0%—its highest level since September 2023—and elevating upside risks to the ECB’s 2% target. Following the Governing Council’s decision on April 30 to hold the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00%, policymakers signaled readiness for tightening, with June 11 now viewed as the likely start of a modest normalization path. This backdrop has shifted trader consensus toward a 25 basis point hike, reflected in the 86.5% market-implied probability, while the slim 12.8% odds of no change capture lingering concerns over weak Q1 GDP growth of just 0.1%. Upcoming May CPI data and any de-escalation in energy markets remain key swing factors ahead of the meeting.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volumen
$280,661Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven Eurozone energy prices sharply higher, pushing April 2026 HICP inflation to 3.0%—its highest level since September 2023—and elevating upside risks to the ECB’s 2% target. Following the Governing Council’s decision on April 30 to hold the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00%, policymakers signaled readiness for tightening, with June 11 now viewed as the likely start of a modest normalization path. This backdrop has shifted trader consensus toward a 25 basis point hike, reflected in the 86.5% market-implied probability, while the slim 12.8% odds of no change capture lingering concerns over weak Q1 GDP growth of just 0.1%. Upcoming May CPI data and any de-escalation in energy markets remain key swing factors ahead of the meeting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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