The ongoing federal trial in Oakland has reinforced trader conviction that Elon Musk is unlikely to secure a $10 billion-plus settlement from OpenAI and Sam Altman, as defense arguments have effectively challenged claims of breach of charitable trust and unjust enrichment tied to the nonprofit-to-for-profit transition. Testimony highlighted Musk’s early interest in control and equity stakes, while OpenAI presented evidence that its large language model development and Microsoft partnership aligned with evolving AI safety and scaling priorities. With closing arguments complete and jury deliberations underway, the 91.5% implied probability for “No” reflects skepticism that Musk can meet the high evidentiary bar for such a massive award. Still, a favorable jury finding on fiduciary duties or a post-verdict negotiated resolution could alter the outcome before final judgment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$79,572 Vol.
$79,572 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$79,572 Vol.
$79,572 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ongoing federal trial in Oakland has reinforced trader conviction that Elon Musk is unlikely to secure a $10 billion-plus settlement from OpenAI and Sam Altman, as defense arguments have effectively challenged claims of breach of charitable trust and unjust enrichment tied to the nonprofit-to-for-profit transition. Testimony highlighted Musk’s early interest in control and equity stakes, while OpenAI presented evidence that its large language model development and Microsoft partnership aligned with evolving AI safety and scaling priorities. With closing arguments complete and jury deliberations underway, the 91.5% implied probability for “No” reflects skepticism that Musk can meet the high evidentiary bar for such a massive award. Still, a favorable jury finding on fiduciary duties or a post-verdict negotiated resolution could alter the outcome before final judgment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Volumen
$79,572Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ongoing federal trial in Oakland has reinforced trader conviction that Elon Musk is unlikely to secure a $10 billion-plus settlement from OpenAI and Sam Altman, as defense arguments have effectively challenged claims of breach of charitable trust and unjust enrichment tied to the nonprofit-to-for-profit transition. Testimony highlighted Musk’s early interest in control and equity stakes, while OpenAI presented evidence that its large language model development and Microsoft partnership aligned with evolving AI safety and scaling priorities. With closing arguments complete and jury deliberations underway, the 91.5% implied probability for “No” reflects skepticism that Musk can meet the high evidentiary bar for such a massive award. Still, a favorable jury finding on fiduciary duties or a post-verdict negotiated resolution could alter the outcome before final judgment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$79,572Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ongoing federal trial in Oakland has reinforced trader conviction that Elon Musk is unlikely to secure a $10 billion-plus settlement from OpenAI and Sam Altman, as defense arguments have effectively challenged claims of breach of charitable trust and unjust enrichment tied to the nonprofit-to-for-profit transition. Testimony highlighted Musk’s early interest in control and equity stakes, while OpenAI presented evidence that its large language model development and Microsoft partnership aligned with evolving AI safety and scaling priorities. With closing arguments complete and jury deliberations underway, the 91.5% implied probability for “No” reflects skepticism that Musk can meet the high evidentiary bar for such a massive award. Still, a favorable jury finding on fiduciary duties or a post-verdict negotiated resolution could alter the outcome before final judgment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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