Trader consensus strongly favors no change to the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, with a 92.5% implied probability driven by recent inflation data remaining above the 2% target and a still-resilient labor market showing moderate cooling in jobless claims and unemployment. The Fed’s latest communications emphasize patience, aligning market-implied odds with expectations of steady policy amid balanced growth signals. Key upcoming catalysts include the June CPI release and June FOMC dot plot revisions, which could shift the rate path. Scenarios that might challenge the hold include an unexpectedly sharp decline in inflation readings or a sudden deterioration in employment data that forces earlier easing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSin cambio 93%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 3.5%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 3.0%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$5,495,945 Vol.
$5,495,945 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
3%
Sin cambio
93%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
3%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Sin cambio 93%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 3.5%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 3.0%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$5,495,945 Vol.
$5,495,945 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
$530,541 Vol.
1%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
$413,609 Vol.
3%
Sin cambio
$650,773 Vol.
93%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$3,393,920 Vol.
3%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$507,102 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus strongly favors no change to the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, with a 92.5% implied probability driven by recent inflation data remaining above the 2% target and a still-resilient labor market showing moderate cooling in jobless claims and unemployment. The Fed’s latest communications emphasize patience, aligning market-implied odds with expectations of steady policy amid balanced growth signals. Key upcoming catalysts include the June CPI release and June FOMC dot plot revisions, which could shift the rate path. Scenarios that might challenge the hold include an unexpectedly sharp decline in inflation readings or a sudden deterioration in employment data that forces earlier easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$5,495,945Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus strongly favors no change to the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, with a 92.5% implied probability driven by recent inflation data remaining above the 2% target and a still-resilient labor market showing moderate cooling in jobless claims and unemployment. The Fed’s latest communications emphasize patience, aligning market-implied odds with expectations of steady policy amid balanced growth signals. Key upcoming catalysts include the June CPI release and June FOMC dot plot revisions, which could shift the rate path. Scenarios that might challenge the hold include an unexpectedly sharp decline in inflation readings or a sudden deterioration in employment data that forces earlier easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$5,495,945Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus strongly favors no change to the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, with a 92.5% implied probability driven by recent inflation data remaining above the 2% target and a still-resilient labor market showing moderate cooling in jobless claims and unemployment. The Fed’s latest communications emphasize patience, aligning market-implied odds with expectations of steady policy amid balanced growth signals. Key upcoming catalysts include the June CPI release and June FOMC dot plot revisions, which could shift the rate path. Scenarios that might challenge the hold include an unexpectedly sharp decline in inflation readings or a sudden deterioration in employment data that forces earlier easing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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