Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, which accelerated to 3.8 percent year-over-year—the highest reading since May 2023—combined with resilient nonfarm payrolls and a steady 4.3 percent unemployment rate, has anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75 percent during the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. These releases reinforced the central bank's data-dependent stance amid sticky inflation pressures, producing the current 93.5 percent implied probability of no change. Market-implied odds could shift if May CPI or June labor data soften materially or if June FOMC communications signal a more dovish tilt, though such outcomes remain low-probability scenarios given the current trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSin cambio 94%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 4.0%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 2.1%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$5,601,529 Vol.
$5,601,529 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
2%
Sin cambio
94%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
4%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Sin cambio 94%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 4.0%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 2.1%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$5,601,529 Vol.
$5,601,529 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
$554,885 Vol.
1%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
$425,006 Vol.
2%
Sin cambio
$663,128 Vol.
94%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$3,407,828 Vol.
4%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$550,688 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, which accelerated to 3.8 percent year-over-year—the highest reading since May 2023—combined with resilient nonfarm payrolls and a steady 4.3 percent unemployment rate, has anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75 percent during the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. These releases reinforced the central bank's data-dependent stance amid sticky inflation pressures, producing the current 93.5 percent implied probability of no change. Market-implied odds could shift if May CPI or June labor data soften materially or if June FOMC communications signal a more dovish tilt, though such outcomes remain low-probability scenarios given the current trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$5,601,529Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, which accelerated to 3.8 percent year-over-year—the highest reading since May 2023—combined with resilient nonfarm payrolls and a steady 4.3 percent unemployment rate, has anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75 percent during the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. These releases reinforced the central bank's data-dependent stance amid sticky inflation pressures, producing the current 93.5 percent implied probability of no change. Market-implied odds could shift if May CPI or June labor data soften materially or if June FOMC communications signal a more dovish tilt, though such outcomes remain low-probability scenarios given the current trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$5,601,529Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, which accelerated to 3.8 percent year-over-year—the highest reading since May 2023—combined with resilient nonfarm payrolls and a steady 4.3 percent unemployment rate, has anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75 percent during the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. These releases reinforced the central bank's data-dependent stance amid sticky inflation pressures, producing the current 93.5 percent implied probability of no change. Market-implied odds could shift if May CPI or June labor data soften materially or if June FOMC communications signal a more dovish tilt, though such outcomes remain low-probability scenarios given the current trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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