Current weather models project a daily maximum near 29–30°C for Chengdu on June 11 amid typical early-summer conditions in the Sichuan basin, where seasonal warming combines with increasing East Asian monsoon moisture to produce humid, partly cloudy skies and scattered afternoon showers. These factors often cap afternoon peaks by limiting solar heating, consistent with the climatological June average high of about 29°C. Recent model runs show modest day-to-day variability tied to cloud cover and precipitation timing, which explains why market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28–31°C rather than favoring extremes. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance and regional ensemble forecasts expected later today will provide the clearest signals for any shifts in these probabilities.