National Weather Service ensemble forecasts and model consensus from NOAA’s GFS and related runs currently favor a Chicago daily maximum in the low 80s on August 21, underpinning the 41% market-implied probability for the 80-81°F outcome. This reflects a stable high-pressure ridge with moderate southerly flow and typical late-August moisture that limits extreme daytime heating while keeping overnight lows elevated. Traders balance these projections against Chicago’s climatological August high near 82°F and the narrowing uncertainty range as the event approaches, with potential revisions hinging on the next model cycles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Chicago el 21 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Chicago el 21 de agosto?
80-81°F 41%
78-79°F 28%
82-83°F 26%
84-85°F 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
21 ago 2026
69°F o menos
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
28%
80-81°F
41%
82-83°F
26%
84-85°F
7%
86-87°F
2%
88°F o más
1%
80-81°F 41%
78-79°F 28%
82-83°F 26%
84-85°F 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
21 ago 2026
69°F o menos
$90 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$10 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$42 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$37 Vol.
2%
76-77°F
$46 Vol.
4%
78-79°F
$32 Vol.
28%
80-81°F
$175 Vol.
41%
82-83°F
$95 Vol.
26%
84-85°F
$34 Vol.
7%
86-87°F
$5 Vol.
2%
88°F o más
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service ensemble forecasts and model consensus from NOAA’s GFS and related runs currently favor a Chicago daily maximum in the low 80s on August 21, underpinning the 41% market-implied probability for the 80-81°F outcome. This reflects a stable high-pressure ridge with moderate southerly flow and typical late-August moisture that limits extreme daytime heating while keeping overnight lows elevated. Traders balance these projections against Chicago’s climatological August high near 82°F and the narrowing uncertainty range as the event approaches, with potential revisions hinging on the next model cycles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 19, 2026, 9:56 PM ET
Volumen
$571Fecha de finalización
21 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 19, 2026, 9:56 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service ensemble forecasts and model consensus from NOAA’s GFS and related runs currently favor a Chicago daily maximum in the low 80s on August 21, underpinning the 41% market-implied probability for the 80-81°F outcome. This reflects a stable high-pressure ridge with moderate southerly flow and typical late-August moisture that limits extreme daytime heating while keeping overnight lows elevated. Traders balance these projections against Chicago’s climatological August high near 82°F and the narrowing uncertainty range as the event approaches, with potential revisions hinging on the next model cycles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$571Fecha de finalización
21 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 19, 2026, 9:56 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service ensemble forecasts and model consensus from NOAA’s GFS and related runs currently favor a Chicago daily maximum in the low 80s on August 21, underpinning the 41% market-implied probability for the 80-81°F outcome. This reflects a stable high-pressure ridge with moderate southerly flow and typical late-August moisture that limits extreme daytime heating while keeping overnight lows elevated. Traders balance these projections against Chicago’s climatological August high near 82°F and the narrowing uncertainty range as the event approaches, with potential revisions hinging on the next model cycles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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