Persistent high pressure and above-normal temperature signals from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center are anchoring Miami's July 4 maximum near the seasonal average of 88–90 °F, with model guidance from the National Weather Service favoring afternoon readings of 90–93 °F under mostly sunny skies and light southeasterly flow. Typical July humidity and urban heat-island effects support these values, while the absence of strong onshore winds or convective cooling keeps the upside risk limited to brief spikes near 94 °F. Recent weeks of above-average warmth across South Florida have reinforced trader consensus around the 90–91 °F bin (44 % implied probability), though ensemble spread and any late-day sea-breeze development could still shift the observed high within the 88–93 °F range that dominates market pricing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Miami on July 4?
Highest temperature in Miami on July 4?
90-91°F 50%
92-93°F 28%
88-89°F 15%
94-95°F 2.1%
NUEVO
$14,165 Vol.
NUEVO
$14,165 Vol.
4 jul 2026
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
15%
90-91°F
50%
92-93°F
28%
94-95°F
2%
96-97°F
1%
98°F or higher
<1%
90-91°F 50%
92-93°F 28%
88-89°F 15%
94-95°F 2.1%
NUEVO
$14,165 Vol.
NUEVO
$14,165 Vol.
4 jul 2026
79°F or below
$286 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$715 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$666 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$1,027 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$647 Vol.
2%
88-89°F
$1,348 Vol.
15%
90-91°F
$3,338 Vol.
50%
92-93°F
$3,557 Vol.
28%
94-95°F
$1,349 Vol.
2%
96-97°F
$636 Vol.
1%
98°F or higher
$612 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and above-normal temperature signals from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center are anchoring Miami's July 4 maximum near the seasonal average of 88–90 °F, with model guidance from the National Weather Service favoring afternoon readings of 90–93 °F under mostly sunny skies and light southeasterly flow. Typical July humidity and urban heat-island effects support these values, while the absence of strong onshore winds or convective cooling keeps the upside risk limited to brief spikes near 94 °F. Recent weeks of above-average warmth across South Florida have reinforced trader consensus around the 90–91 °F bin (44 % implied probability), though ensemble spread and any late-day sea-breeze development could still shift the observed high within the 88–93 °F range that dominates market pricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jul 2, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volumen
$14,165Fecha de finalización
4 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 2, 2026, 9:02 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and above-normal temperature signals from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center are anchoring Miami's July 4 maximum near the seasonal average of 88–90 °F, with model guidance from the National Weather Service favoring afternoon readings of 90–93 °F under mostly sunny skies and light southeasterly flow. Typical July humidity and urban heat-island effects support these values, while the absence of strong onshore winds or convective cooling keeps the upside risk limited to brief spikes near 94 °F. Recent weeks of above-average warmth across South Florida have reinforced trader consensus around the 90–91 °F bin (44 % implied probability), though ensemble spread and any late-day sea-breeze development could still shift the observed high within the 88–93 °F range that dominates market pricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$14,165Fecha de finalización
4 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 2, 2026, 9:02 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high pressure and above-normal temperature signals from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center are anchoring Miami's July 4 maximum near the seasonal average of 88–90 °F, with model guidance from the National Weather Service favoring afternoon readings of 90–93 °F under mostly sunny skies and light southeasterly flow. Typical July humidity and urban heat-island effects support these values, while the absence of strong onshore winds or convective cooling keeps the upside risk limited to brief spikes near 94 °F. Recent weeks of above-average warmth across South Florida have reinforced trader consensus around the 90–91 °F bin (44 % implied probability), though ensemble spread and any late-day sea-breeze development could still shift the observed high within the 88–93 °F range that dominates market pricing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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