National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance currently favor a daily maximum of 88–89°F in Miami on May 22, driven by persistent easterly flow, moderate sea-breeze convergence, and late-spring insolation under mostly sunny skies. These conditions align closely with climatological normals for the date while limiting afternoon convection that could cap temperatures. Recent model runs show limited spread, with only modest potential for a brief shower or thunderstorm to trim the high by a degree or two. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds therefore concentrates on the 86–91°F range, with the 88–89°F bin holding the clearest edge ahead of official Miami International Airport observations that will determine resolution.