Recent forecast models from sources like the National Meteorological Center indicate Shanghai will likely see a daily high near 25–26°C on May 22, driven by moderate southerly flow and partial cloud cover limiting daytime heating. This aligns with historical May averages of 24–25°C for the city and places the outcome squarely in the climatological norm rather than an extreme. Traders assign the highest probability to 25°C because ensemble guidance shows only modest warming potential if skies clear, while any increased moisture or northerly shift could cap the maximum at 24°C. Upcoming model runs tonight will clarify whether a brief ridge builds enough for a 27°C spike or keeps readings closer to seasonal baselines.