Current ensemble forecasts from major models indicate a highest temperature in Warsaw on July 23 most likely between 17°C and 20°C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. A passing Atlantic trough is expected to increase cloud cover and bring light showers or patchy rain, limiting daytime insolation and keeping maxima below seasonal July averages near 24°C. Minor differences among leading probabilities reflect subtle variations in predicted frontal timing, low-level moisture, and wind patterns across runs from agencies such as ECMWF and GFS, with updates through July 21 showing stable consensus rather than sharp shifts. Historical analogs for late-July cool outbreaks in central Poland support the current distribution, while resolution hinges on official maximum readings from Warsaw meteorological stations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Varsovia el 23 de julio?
¿La temperatura más alta en Varsovia el 23 de julio?
19°C 34%
20°C 27%
18°C 23%
21°C 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 jul 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
8%
18°C
23%
19°C
34%
20°C
27%
21°C
10%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 34%
20°C 27%
18°C 23%
21°C 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 jul 2026
14°C or below
$96 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$164 Vol.
1%
16°C
$108 Vol.
1%
17°C
$193 Vol.
8%
18°C
$117 Vol.
23%
19°C
$268 Vol.
34%
20°C
$207 Vol.
27%
21°C
$139 Vol.
10%
22°C
$116 Vol.
1%
23°C
$109 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$113 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major models indicate a highest temperature in Warsaw on July 23 most likely between 17°C and 20°C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. A passing Atlantic trough is expected to increase cloud cover and bring light showers or patchy rain, limiting daytime insolation and keeping maxima below seasonal July averages near 24°C. Minor differences among leading probabilities reflect subtle variations in predicted frontal timing, low-level moisture, and wind patterns across runs from agencies such as ECMWF and GFS, with updates through July 21 showing stable consensus rather than sharp shifts. Historical analogs for late-July cool outbreaks in central Poland support the current distribution, while resolution hinges on official maximum readings from Warsaw meteorological stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jul 21, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volumen
$1,630Fecha de finalización
23 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 21, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major models indicate a highest temperature in Warsaw on July 23 most likely between 17°C and 20°C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. A passing Atlantic trough is expected to increase cloud cover and bring light showers or patchy rain, limiting daytime insolation and keeping maxima below seasonal July averages near 24°C. Minor differences among leading probabilities reflect subtle variations in predicted frontal timing, low-level moisture, and wind patterns across runs from agencies such as ECMWF and GFS, with updates through July 21 showing stable consensus rather than sharp shifts. Historical analogs for late-July cool outbreaks in central Poland support the current distribution, while resolution hinges on official maximum readings from Warsaw meteorological stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,630Fecha de finalización
23 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 21, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from major models indicate a highest temperature in Warsaw on July 23 most likely between 17°C and 20°C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. A passing Atlantic trough is expected to increase cloud cover and bring light showers or patchy rain, limiting daytime insolation and keeping maxima below seasonal July averages near 24°C. Minor differences among leading probabilities reflect subtle variations in predicted frontal timing, low-level moisture, and wind patterns across runs from agencies such as ECMWF and GFS, with updates through July 21 showing stable consensus rather than sharp shifts. Historical analogs for late-July cool outbreaks in central Poland support the current distribution, while resolution hinges on official maximum readings from Warsaw meteorological stations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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