Developing El Niño conditions, now officially declared by NOAA with strengthening sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, represent the dominant factor tilting trader sentiment toward below-average US tornado counts in July. Historical data show July averaging roughly 110 tornadoes, with El Niño phases often suppressing the classic Plains severe weather setups through altered jet stream patterns and reduced moisture transport. Market-implied odds clustering near or below 130 reflect this climatological signal alongside recent quieting trends in spring activity, though summer months carry higher forecast uncertainty due to localized convective triggers and potential model divergence in steering patterns. Storm Prediction Center seasonal updates and ongoing ENSO monitoring through late June will provide key data points for traders assessing resolution risks around category thresholds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos tornados hay en Estados Unidos en julio?
¿Cuántos tornados hay en Estados Unidos en julio?
<100 43%
100–129 38%
310+ 26%
130–159 25%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 ago 2026
<100
43%
100–129
38%
130–159
25%
160–189
25%
190–219
25%
220–249
22%
250–279
22%
280–310
25%
310+
26%
<100 43%
100–129 38%
310+ 26%
130–159 25%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 ago 2026
<100
$30 Vol.
43%
100–129
$44 Vol.
38%
130–159
$78 Vol.
25%
160–189
$40 Vol.
25%
190–219
$41 Vol.
25%
220–249
$33 Vol.
22%
250–279
$53 Vol.
22%
280–310
$131 Vol.
25%
310+
$40 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Developing El Niño conditions, now officially declared by NOAA with strengthening sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, represent the dominant factor tilting trader sentiment toward below-average US tornado counts in July. Historical data show July averaging roughly 110 tornadoes, with El Niño phases often suppressing the classic Plains severe weather setups through altered jet stream patterns and reduced moisture transport. Market-implied odds clustering near or below 130 reflect this climatological signal alongside recent quieting trends in spring activity, though summer months carry higher forecast uncertainty due to localized convective triggers and potential model divergence in steering patterns. Storm Prediction Center seasonal updates and ongoing ENSO monitoring through late June will provide key data points for traders assessing resolution risks around category thresholds.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado abierto: Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ET
Volumen
$489Fecha de finalización
1 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Developing El Niño conditions, now officially declared by NOAA with strengthening sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, represent the dominant factor tilting trader sentiment toward below-average US tornado counts in July. Historical data show July averaging roughly 110 tornadoes, with El Niño phases often suppressing the classic Plains severe weather setups through altered jet stream patterns and reduced moisture transport. Market-implied odds clustering near or below 130 reflect this climatological signal alongside recent quieting trends in spring activity, though summer months carry higher forecast uncertainty due to localized convective triggers and potential model divergence in steering patterns. Storm Prediction Center seasonal updates and ongoing ENSO monitoring through late June will provide key data points for traders assessing resolution risks around category thresholds.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volumen
$489Fecha de finalización
1 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Developing El Niño conditions, now officially declared by NOAA with strengthening sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, represent the dominant factor tilting trader sentiment toward below-average US tornado counts in July. Historical data show July averaging roughly 110 tornadoes, with El Niño phases often suppressing the classic Plains severe weather setups through altered jet stream patterns and reduced moisture transport. Market-implied odds clustering near or below 130 reflect this climatological signal alongside recent quieting trends in spring activity, though summer months carry higher forecast uncertainty due to localized convective triggers and potential model divergence in steering patterns. Storm Prediction Center seasonal updates and ongoing ENSO monitoring through late June will provide key data points for traders assessing resolution risks around category thresholds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes