**Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains too close to call, with the latest polls showing Yes and No separated by just a few percentage points or within the margin of error.** This has positioned narrow victory margins—particularly under 3% for either side—and “Other” as the dominant trader consensus outcomes. The ballot asks only whether talks should restart, not membership itself, and any eventual accession treaty would require a second referendum years later. Primary drivers include long-standing concerns over fisheries sovereignty and control of exclusive economic zones, balanced against potential economic stability from adopting the euro and reduced exposure to the volatile Icelandic krona. Geopolitical factors such as Arctic security dynamics and external tariff pressures have added urgency but have not shifted the fundamental divide. High early voting turnout and last-minute poll fluctuations reinforce expectations of a razor-thin result that could easily fall into the narrowest bins or trigger “Other” depending on final counting and any procedural nuances.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNo <3% 42%
Sí <3% 25%
No 9–12% 23%
No 3–6% 20%
NUEVO
NUEVO
29 ago 2026
Sí 15%+
4%
Sí 12–15%
10%
Sí 9–12%
1%
Sí 6–9%
16%
Sí 3–6%
19%
Sí <3%
25%
No <3%
30%
No 3–6%
20%
No 6–9%
17%
No 9–12%
23%
No 12–15%
20%
No 15%+
16%
No <3% 42%
Sí <3% 25%
No 9–12% 23%
No 3–6% 20%
NUEVO
NUEVO
29 ago 2026
Sí 15%+
$108 Vol.
4%
Sí 12–15%
$106 Vol.
10%
Sí 9–12%
$21 Vol.
1%
Sí 6–9%
$11 Vol.
16%
Sí 3–6%
$47 Vol.
19%
Sí <3%
$44 Vol.
25%
No <3%
$43 Vol.
30%
No 3–6%
$24 Vol.
20%
No 6–9%
$24 Vol.
17%
No 9–12%
$22 Vol.
23%
No 12–15%
$86 Vol.
20%
No 15%+
$16 Vol.
16%
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.**Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains too close to call, with the latest polls showing Yes and No separated by just a few percentage points or within the margin of error.** This has positioned narrow victory margins—particularly under 3% for either side—and “Other” as the dominant trader consensus outcomes. The ballot asks only whether talks should restart, not membership itself, and any eventual accession treaty would require a second referendum years later. Primary drivers include long-standing concerns over fisheries sovereignty and control of exclusive economic zones, balanced against potential economic stability from adopting the euro and reduced exposure to the volatile Icelandic krona. Geopolitical factors such as Arctic security dynamics and external tariff pressures have added urgency but have not shifted the fundamental divide. High early voting turnout and last-minute poll fluctuations reinforce expectations of a razor-thin result that could easily fall into the narrowest bins or trigger “Other” depending on final counting and any procedural nuances.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Mercado abierto: Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET
Volumen
$553Fecha de finalización
29 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.**Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains too close to call, with the latest polls showing Yes and No separated by just a few percentage points or within the margin of error.** This has positioned narrow victory margins—particularly under 3% for either side—and “Other” as the dominant trader consensus outcomes. The ballot asks only whether talks should restart, not membership itself, and any eventual accession treaty would require a second referendum years later. Primary drivers include long-standing concerns over fisheries sovereignty and control of exclusive economic zones, balanced against potential economic stability from adopting the euro and reduced exposure to the volatile Icelandic krona. Geopolitical factors such as Arctic security dynamics and external tariff pressures have added urgency but have not shifted the fundamental divide. High early voting turnout and last-minute poll fluctuations reinforce expectations of a razor-thin result that could easily fall into the narrowest bins or trigger “Other” depending on final counting and any procedural nuances.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volumen
$553Fecha de finalización
29 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains too close to call, with the latest polls showing Yes and No separated by just a few percentage points or within the margin of error.** This has positioned narrow victory margins—particularly under 3% for either side—and “Other” as the dominant trader consensus outcomes. The ballot asks only whether talks should restart, not membership itself, and any eventual accession treaty would require a second referendum years later. Primary drivers include long-standing concerns over fisheries sovereignty and control of exclusive economic zones, balanced against potential economic stability from adopting the euro and reduced exposure to the volatile Icelandic krona. Geopolitical factors such as Arctic security dynamics and external tariff pressures have added urgency but have not shifted the fundamental divide. High early voting turnout and last-minute poll fluctuations reinforce expectations of a razor-thin result that could easily fall into the narrowest bins or trigger “Other” depending on final counting and any procedural nuances.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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