**Traders assign an 83% implied probability to "No" on Justin Aguiar’s conviction before the end of 2026 primarily because Canadian courts move slowly on sexual assault cases and prior similar charges against him were withdrawn.** Aguiar, a Toronto dating coach and content creator known online as Justin Marc, was arrested and charged in November 2025 with one count stemming from an alleged August 2024 incident; he faces his next court appearance in January 2026, with no trial date set as of mid-2026. Earlier 2019 and 2023 charges were withdrawn, consistent with broader statistics showing low conviction rates for reported sexual assaults in Canada. Additional accusers have spoken publicly, yet the market reflects the realistic barriers of backlogs, disclosure processes, and the high evidentiary threshold required for a guilty verdict within the remaining timeframe.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Justin Aguiar condenado por agresión sexual antes de 2027?
¿Justin Aguiar condenado por agresión sexual antes de 2027?
Sí
31% probabilidad
$52,562 Vol.
$52,562 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
31% probabilidad
$52,562 Vol.
$52,562 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign an 83% implied probability to "No" on Justin Aguiar’s conviction before the end of 2026 primarily because Canadian courts move slowly on sexual assault cases and prior similar charges against him were withdrawn.** Aguiar, a Toronto dating coach and content creator known online as Justin Marc, was arrested and charged in November 2025 with one count stemming from an alleged August 2024 incident; he faces his next court appearance in January 2026, with no trial date set as of mid-2026. Earlier 2019 and 2023 charges were withdrawn, consistent with broader statistics showing low conviction rates for reported sexual assaults in Canada.
Additional accusers have spoken publicly, yet the market reflects the realistic barriers of backlogs, disclosure processes, and the high evidentiary threshold required for a guilty verdict within the remaining timeframe.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ET
Volumen
$52,562Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign an 83% implied probability to "No" on Justin Aguiar’s conviction before the end of 2026 primarily because Canadian courts move slowly on sexual assault cases and prior similar charges against him were withdrawn.** Aguiar, a Toronto dating coach and content creator known online as Justin Marc, was arrested and charged in November 2025 with one count stemming from an alleged August 2024 incident; he faces his next court appearance in January 2026, with no trial date set as of mid-2026. Earlier 2019 and 2023 charges were withdrawn, consistent with broader statistics showing low conviction rates for reported sexual assaults in Canada.
Additional accusers have spoken publicly, yet the market reflects the realistic barriers of backlogs, disclosure processes, and the high evidentiary threshold required for a guilty verdict within the remaining timeframe.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$52,562Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 83% implied probability to "No" on Justin Aguiar’s conviction before the end of 2026 primarily because Canadian courts move slowly on sexual assault cases and prior similar charges against him were withdrawn.** Aguiar, a Toronto dating coach and content creator known online as Justin Marc, was arrested and charged in November 2025 with one count stemming from an alleged August 2024 incident; he faces his next court appearance in January 2026, with no trial date set as of mid-2026. Earlier 2019 and 2023 charges were withdrawn, consistent with broader statistics showing low conviction rates for reported sexual assaults in Canada. Additional accusers have spoken publicly, yet the market reflects the realistic barriers of backlogs, disclosure processes, and the high evidentiary threshold required for a guilty verdict within the remaining timeframe.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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