**Persistent extreme heat across North Texas has kept overnight lows elevated well above seasonal normals, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 82–87°F range for Dallas’s August 25 minimum.** Official National Weather Service forecasts and model guidance consistently project a Tuesday night low near 83°F under mostly clear skies, light southerly winds of 5–10 mph, and dew points in the low-to-mid 60s that limit radiational cooling. Record daytime highs of 109°F the prior day and continued heat-dome conditions have maintained a warm boundary layer, preventing the typical drop into the mid-70s seen in historical August averages. Minor differences among leading bins reflect small forecast spreads in exact wind speeds, cloud cover timing, and station-specific observations at sites like Dallas Love Field, with traders weighting the consensus NWS point forecast and ensemble guidance most heavily as the day’s minimum approaches resolution.