Traders see 28–29°C as the most likely minimum temperature in Shanghai on July 16 because ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models currently cluster around that range for the overnight period. Shanghai’s subtropical monsoon climate features high humidity that limits nocturnal radiative cooling, while urban heat-island effects and light southerly flow keep lows elevated compared with rural surroundings. Recent model runs show modest disagreement on the timing of any passing showers, which could either suppress or enhance cooling depending on cloud cover. Historical July climatology places average overnight lows near 26–28°C, so the tightly matched market probabilities reflect both the narrow forecast spread and the inherent uncertainty in short-range temperature guidance just two days out. New model cycles and official China Meteorological Administration updates will provide the next clear signals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Shanghái el 16 de julio?
¿Temperatura más baja en Shanghái el 16 de julio?
28°C 43%
29°C 39%
27°C 13%
30°C 6.9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 jul 2026
23°C o menos
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
4%
27°C
13%
28°C
43%
29°C
39%
30°C
7%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C o más
<1%
28°C 43%
29°C 39%
27°C 13%
30°C 6.9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 jul 2026
23°C o menos
$229 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$289 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$236 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$43 Vol.
4%
27°C
$124 Vol.
13%
28°C
$84 Vol.
43%
29°C
$144 Vol.
39%
30°C
$73 Vol.
7%
31°C
$314 Vol.
1%
32°C
$256 Vol.
<1%
33°C o más
$559 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 28–29°C as the most likely minimum temperature in Shanghai on July 16 because ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models currently cluster around that range for the overnight period. Shanghai’s subtropical monsoon climate features high humidity that limits nocturnal radiative cooling, while urban heat-island effects and light southerly flow keep lows elevated compared with rural surroundings. Recent model runs show modest disagreement on the timing of any passing showers, which could either suppress or enhance cooling depending on cloud cover. Historical July climatology places average overnight lows near 26–28°C, so the tightly matched market probabilities reflect both the narrow forecast spread and the inherent uncertainty in short-range temperature guidance just two days out. New model cycles and official China Meteorological Administration updates will provide the next clear signals.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jul 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$2,351Fecha de finalización
16 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 28–29°C as the most likely minimum temperature in Shanghai on July 16 because ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models currently cluster around that range for the overnight period. Shanghai’s subtropical monsoon climate features high humidity that limits nocturnal radiative cooling, while urban heat-island effects and light southerly flow keep lows elevated compared with rural surroundings. Recent model runs show modest disagreement on the timing of any passing showers, which could either suppress or enhance cooling depending on cloud cover. Historical July climatology places average overnight lows near 26–28°C, so the tightly matched market probabilities reflect both the narrow forecast spread and the inherent uncertainty in short-range temperature guidance just two days out. New model cycles and official China Meteorological Administration updates will provide the next clear signals.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$2,351Fecha de finalización
16 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see 28–29°C as the most likely minimum temperature in Shanghai on July 16 because ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models currently cluster around that range for the overnight period. Shanghai’s subtropical monsoon climate features high humidity that limits nocturnal radiative cooling, while urban heat-island effects and light southerly flow keep lows elevated compared with rural surroundings. Recent model runs show modest disagreement on the timing of any passing showers, which could either suppress or enhance cooling depending on cloud cover. Historical July climatology places average overnight lows near 26–28°C, so the tightly matched market probabilities reflect both the narrow forecast spread and the inherent uncertainty in short-range temperature guidance just two days out. New model cycles and official China Meteorological Administration updates will provide the next clear signals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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