**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature of 24–25°C for Tokyo on September 2, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading probabilities (25°C at 51%, 24°C at 32%).** Current conditions on September 1 feature daytime highs near 29–30°C and overnight lows around 23–24°C under partly cloudy skies with southerly to southeasterly flow. Multiple sources, including GFS-based guidance and regional models, project similar or slightly warmer overnight values for September 2, with lows holding near 24–25.5°C amid moderate humidity (60–85%) and light winds that limit radiational cooling. No strong cold fronts, typhoon influences, or clear-sky radiative cooling episodes are expected to drive sharper drops, while persistent warm, moist air from the south supports the narrow 24–25°C range. This consensus explains why probabilities cluster tightly around these values, with tails for 23°C or 26°C reflecting only modest model spread. Updated model runs and official JMA guidance over the next 12–24 hours will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Tokio el 2 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Tokio el 2 de septiembre?
25°C 51%
24°C 31%
27°C 13%
23°C 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 sep 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
3%
22°C
8%
23°C
11%
24°C
31%
25°C
51%
26°C
9%
27°C
13%
28°C
9%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 51%
24°C 31%
27°C 13%
23°C 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 sep 2026
20°C or below
$20 Vol.
1%
21°C
$5 Vol.
3%
22°C
$40 Vol.
8%
23°C
$29 Vol.
11%
24°C
$132 Vol.
31%
25°C
$126 Vol.
51%
26°C
$398 Vol.
9%
27°C
$48 Vol.
13%
28°C
$5 Vol.
9%
29°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$20 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature of 24–25°C for Tokyo on September 2, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading probabilities (25°C at 51%, 24°C at 32%).**
Current conditions on September 1 feature daytime highs near 29–30°C and overnight lows around 23–24°C under partly cloudy skies with southerly to southeasterly flow. Multiple sources, including GFS-based guidance and regional models, project similar or slightly warmer overnight values for September 2, with lows holding near 24–25.5°C amid moderate humidity (60–85%) and light winds that limit radiational cooling.
No strong cold fronts, typhoon influences, or clear-sky radiative cooling episodes are expected to drive sharper drops, while persistent warm, moist air from the south supports the narrow 24–25°C range. This consensus explains why probabilities cluster tightly around these values, with tails for 23°C or 26°C reflecting only modest model spread. Updated model runs and official JMA guidance over the next 12–24 hours will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$868Fecha de finalización
2 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature of 24–25°C for Tokyo on September 2, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading probabilities (25°C at 51%, 24°C at 32%).**
Current conditions on September 1 feature daytime highs near 29–30°C and overnight lows around 23–24°C under partly cloudy skies with southerly to southeasterly flow. Multiple sources, including GFS-based guidance and regional models, project similar or slightly warmer overnight values for September 2, with lows holding near 24–25.5°C amid moderate humidity (60–85%) and light winds that limit radiational cooling.
No strong cold fronts, typhoon influences, or clear-sky radiative cooling episodes are expected to drive sharper drops, while persistent warm, moist air from the south supports the narrow 24–25°C range. This consensus explains why probabilities cluster tightly around these values, with tails for 23°C or 26°C reflecting only modest model spread. Updated model runs and official JMA guidance over the next 12–24 hours will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$868Fecha de finalización
2 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature of 24–25°C for Tokyo on September 2, 2026, aligning with the market’s leading probabilities (25°C at 51%, 24°C at 32%).** Current conditions on September 1 feature daytime highs near 29–30°C and overnight lows around 23–24°C under partly cloudy skies with southerly to southeasterly flow. Multiple sources, including GFS-based guidance and regional models, project similar or slightly warmer overnight values for September 2, with lows holding near 24–25.5°C amid moderate humidity (60–85%) and light winds that limit radiational cooling. No strong cold fronts, typhoon influences, or clear-sky radiative cooling episodes are expected to drive sharper drops, while persistent warm, moist air from the south supports the narrow 24–25°C range. This consensus explains why probabilities cluster tightly around these values, with tails for 23°C or 26°C reflecting only modest model spread. Updated model runs and official JMA guidance over the next 12–24 hours will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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