Negotiations between MLB and the MLB Players Association for a new collective bargaining agreement only opened this week with initial presentations in New York, more than six months before the Dec. 1 expiration of the current five-year deal covering the 2022-2026 seasons. Owners are expected to push for a salary cap and expanded revenue sharing, positions the union has long rejected outright, setting up contentious talks on minimum salaries, service time, and competitive balance that mirror the 2021-22 lockout which lasted 99 days. With formal proposals still weeks away and historical patterns showing deals often finalized in spring after a potential work stoppage, the market's 63.5% implied probability on no agreement by the deadline aligns with the extended timeline and unresolved core issues that typically require winter momentum before resolution.