Miroslav Klose's all-time World Cup career record of 16 goals remains the benchmark, with Lionel Messi on 13 and Kylian Mbappé on 12 entering the expanded 48-team 2026 tournament that began June 11. No active player sits within realistic striking distance of surpassing the mark in a single edition, where even the most prolific forwards typically manage three to six goals across seven or eight matches at most. Early group-stage results show no surge capable of closing a three- or four-goal gap, and historical patterns confirm that single-tournament output rarely exceeds the levels needed here. While Mbappé's pace or Messi's playmaking could theoretically produce outliers in knockout rounds, the implied probability reflects broad trader consensus that structural limits on matches played, defensive setups, and individual variance make a record-breaking performance improbable.