El Niño conditions confirmed by NOAA on June 11, 2026—with Niño-3.4 at +0.7°C and forecasts for intensification—represent the dominant near-term driver pushing trader consensus toward the 1.15–1.19°C bin (61% implied probability). This developing event, following La Niña cooling in 2025, is expected to elevate June global mean surface temperatures above the 1850–1900 baseline through enhanced equatorial Pacific heat release, consistent with historical El Niño analogs and the ongoing ~0.3°C-per-decade anthropogenic trend. Recent model runs show limited disagreement on near-term warming, though June outcomes remain sensitive to exact atmospheric coupling and any late-month variability. Upcoming ENSO updates and June observational releases from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will provide key resolution signals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 60%
1.10–1.14ºC 19%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
<1.10ºC 3.3%
最新
最新
2026-06-30
<1.10ºC
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
19%
1.15–1.19ºC
60%
1.20–1.24ºC
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 60%
1.10–1.14ºC 19%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
<1.10ºC 3.3%
最新
最新
2026-06-30
<1.10ºC
$325 交易量
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
$4,727 交易量
19%
1.15–1.19ºC
$76 交易量
60%
1.20–1.24ºC
$1,650 交易量
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,290 交易量
3%
>1.29ºC
$880 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions confirmed by NOAA on June 11, 2026—with Niño-3.4 at +0.7°C and forecasts for intensification—represent the dominant near-term driver pushing trader consensus toward the 1.15–1.19°C bin (61% implied probability). This developing event, following La Niña cooling in 2025, is expected to elevate June global mean surface temperatures above the 1850–1900 baseline through enhanced equatorial Pacific heat release, consistent with historical El Niño analogs and the ongoing ~0.3°C-per-decade anthropogenic trend. Recent model runs show limited disagreement on near-term warming, though June outcomes remain sensitive to exact atmospheric coupling and any late-month variability. Upcoming ENSO updates and June observational releases from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will provide key resolution signals.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市场开放时间： May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
交易量
$8,948结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions confirmed by NOAA on June 11, 2026—with Niño-3.4 at +0.7°C and forecasts for intensification—represent the dominant near-term driver pushing trader consensus toward the 1.15–1.19°C bin (61% implied probability). This developing event, following La Niña cooling in 2025, is expected to elevate June global mean surface temperatures above the 1850–1900 baseline through enhanced equatorial Pacific heat release, consistent with historical El Niño analogs and the ongoing ~0.3°C-per-decade anthropogenic trend. Recent model runs show limited disagreement on near-term warming, though June outcomes remain sensitive to exact atmospheric coupling and any late-month variability. Upcoming ENSO updates and June observational releases from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will provide key resolution signals.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$8,948结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...El Niño conditions confirmed by NOAA on June 11, 2026—with Niño-3.4 at +0.7°C and forecasts for intensification—represent the dominant near-term driver pushing trader consensus toward the 1.15–1.19°C bin (61% implied probability). This developing event, following La Niña cooling in 2025, is expected to elevate June global mean surface temperatures above the 1850–1900 baseline through enhanced equatorial Pacific heat release, consistent with historical El Niño analogs and the ongoing ~0.3°C-per-decade anthropogenic trend. Recent model runs show limited disagreement on near-term warming, though June outcomes remain sensitive to exact atmospheric coupling and any late-month variability. Upcoming ENSO updates and June observational releases from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will provide key resolution signals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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