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Sports·UFC

Lucas Fernando – Rafael Tobias

Polymarket
Lucas Fernando
Lucas Fernando
KO/TKO
Rafael Tobias
Rafael Tobias
$429.87K Vol.Polymarket

Moneyline

$326K Vol.

Totals

$58.0K Vol.

Go the Distance?

$41.1K Vol.

Fight won by KO/TKO?

$505 Vol.

Fernando to win by KO/TKO?

$4.2K Vol.

Tobias to win by KO/TKO?

$111 Vol.

Fight won by submission?

$97 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Lucas Fernando" if Lucas Fernando is officially declared the winner of the fight against Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026. It will resolve to "Rafael Tobias" if Rafael Tobias is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Lucas Fernando and Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Draws decided by the judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds are completed will resolve "Yes." Technical decisions or technical draws declared before all rounds are completed will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Lucas Fernando and Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lucas Fernando defeats Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rafael Tobias defeats Lucas Fernando at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Lucas Fernando and Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.Each market will resolve to "Over" if the fight between Lucas Fernando and Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold. Each market will resolve to "Under" if the fight does not last beyond the listed round threshold. For example: "Over 0.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 1. "Under 0.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 1. If the fight ends exactly at the threshold, it will resolve "50-50." If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond August 29, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.Each market will resolve to "Over" if the fight between Lucas Fernando and Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold. Each market will resolve to "Under" if the fight does not last beyond the listed round threshold. For example: "Over 1.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 2. "Under 1.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 2. If the fight ends exactly at the threshold, it will resolve "50-50." If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond August 29, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.Each market will resolve to "Over" if the fight between Lucas Fernando and Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold. Each market will resolve to "Under" if the fight does not last beyond the listed round threshold. For example: "Over 2.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 3. "Under 2.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 3. If the fight ends exactly at the threshold, it will resolve "50-50." If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond August 29, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.Lucas Fernando enters his UFC debut on a four-fight win streak that includes back-to-back first-round LFA light heavyweight title finishes, giving traders strong confidence in his finishing power and momentum against Rafael Tobias. The 13-3 Brazilian prospect also carries a middleweight title background before moving up, contrasting with Tobias’s 14-2 record that includes a unanimous decision loss in his March UFC debut and limited recent activity at this level. Both fighters share Brazilian roots and comparable reach, but Fernando’s recent first-round dominance and undefeated streak at light heavyweight have shaped the implied probability favoring him in this early prelim matchup. No major injuries or late roster changes have altered the setup on fight day in Philadelphia.

This market will resolve to "Lucas Fernando" if Lucas Fernando is officially declared the winner of the fight against Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026.

It will resolve to "Rafael Tobias" if Rafael Tobias is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Volume
$429,871
End Date
Aug 16, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 6:00 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.ufc.com/events

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Lucas Fernando" if Lucas Fernando is officially declared the winner of the fight against Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026. It will resolve to "Rafael Tobias" if Rafael Tobias is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

The “Tobias vs. Fernando” market on Polymarket lets you trade on the outcome of the UFC game between the Rafael Tobias and the Lucas Fernando, scheduled for August 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET. The primary market is the moneyline — which team will win the game — where Fernando is currently priced at 100¢ (100% implied probability) and Tobias at 0¢ (0%). Beyond the moneyline, sports markets on Polymarket may feature spreads, totals (over/under), and player props, giving you multiple ways to trade on this game. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Shares in the correct outcome pay out $1 each when the market resolves after the game ends.

As of now, the “Tobias vs. Fernando” market has generated $429.9K in total trading volume across all market types (moneyline, spreads, totals, and player props). This volume reflects active engagement from the Polymarket trading community, and a deeper pool of traders generally means more informative, reliable odds. You can track live price movements and trade on any market directly on this page.

To trade on “Tobias vs. Fernando,” start by choosing the market type you want to trade: Moneyline (which team wins), Spreads (margin of victory), Totals (combined score over/under), or Player Props (individual player stat lines). Each market shows the current price for each side — for example, the moneyline shows RAF11 at 0¢ and LUC8 at 100¢. Select the side you want to trade, choose Buy to take a position or Sell to close an existing one, enter your amount, and click Trade. If your chosen side is correct when the game ends and the market resolves, your shares pay out $1 each. If it’s incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before the game ends to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current moneyline odds for “Tobias vs. Fernando” show Lucas Fernando at 100¢ (100% implied probability) and Rafael Tobias at 0¢ (0%). All odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, reflecting the latest collective view of how this game will play out. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as game time approaches.

The “Tobias vs. Fernando” market resolves based on the official final score of the UFC game as reported by UFC’s official results, including overtime if applicable. Moneyline markets resolve to the team that wins the game. Spread markets resolve based on the final margin of victory relative to the posted line. Totals (over/under) markets resolve based on the combined final score of both teams. Player prop markets resolve based on official box score statistics. If the game is postponed or canceled, the market resolution rules (available in the Rules section on this page) specify how that scenario is handled. We recommend reviewing the full resolution criteria before trading.
Sports·UFC

Lucas Fernando – Rafael Tobias

Polymarket
Lucas Fernando
Lucas Fernando
KO/TKO
Rafael Tobias
Rafael Tobias
$429.87K Vol.Polymarket

Moneyline

$326K Vol.

Totals

$58.0K Vol.

Go the Distance?

$41.1K Vol.

Fight won by KO/TKO?

$505 Vol.

Fernando to win by KO/TKO?

$4.2K Vol.

Tobias to win by KO/TKO?

$111 Vol.

Fight won by submission?

$97 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Lucas Fernando" if Lucas Fernando is officially declared the winner of the fight against Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026. It will resolve to "Rafael Tobias" if Rafael Tobias is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Lucas Fernando and Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Draws decided by the judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds are completed will resolve "Yes." Technical decisions or technical draws declared before all rounds are completed will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Lucas Fernando and Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lucas Fernando defeats Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rafael Tobias defeats Lucas Fernando at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Lucas Fernando and Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.Each market will resolve to "Over" if the fight between Lucas Fernando and Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold. Each market will resolve to "Under" if the fight does not last beyond the listed round threshold. For example: "Over 0.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 1. "Under 0.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 1. If the fight ends exactly at the threshold, it will resolve "50-50." If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond August 29, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.Each market will resolve to "Over" if the fight between Lucas Fernando and Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold. Each market will resolve to "Under" if the fight does not last beyond the listed round threshold. For example: "Over 1.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 2. "Under 1.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 2. If the fight ends exactly at the threshold, it will resolve "50-50." If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond August 29, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.Each market will resolve to "Over" if the fight between Lucas Fernando and Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold. Each market will resolve to "Under" if the fight does not last beyond the listed round threshold. For example: "Over 2.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 3. "Under 2.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 3. If the fight ends exactly at the threshold, it will resolve "50-50." If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond August 29, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.Lucas Fernando enters his UFC debut on a four-fight win streak that includes back-to-back first-round LFA light heavyweight title finishes, giving traders strong confidence in his finishing power and momentum against Rafael Tobias. The 13-3 Brazilian prospect also carries a middleweight title background before moving up, contrasting with Tobias’s 14-2 record that includes a unanimous decision loss in his March UFC debut and limited recent activity at this level. Both fighters share Brazilian roots and comparable reach, but Fernando’s recent first-round dominance and undefeated streak at light heavyweight have shaped the implied probability favoring him in this early prelim matchup. No major injuries or late roster changes have altered the setup on fight day in Philadelphia.

This market will resolve to "Lucas Fernando" if Lucas Fernando is officially declared the winner of the fight against Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026.

It will resolve to "Rafael Tobias" if Rafael Tobias is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Volume
$429,871
End Date
Aug 16, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 6:00 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.ufc.com/events

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Lucas Fernando" if Lucas Fernando is officially declared the winner of the fight against Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026. It will resolve to "Rafael Tobias" if Rafael Tobias is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

The “Tobias vs. Fernando” market on Polymarket lets you trade on the outcome of the UFC game between the Rafael Tobias and the Lucas Fernando, scheduled for August 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET. The primary market is the moneyline — which team will win the game — where Fernando is currently priced at 100¢ (100% implied probability) and Tobias at 0¢ (0%). Beyond the moneyline, sports markets on Polymarket may feature spreads, totals (over/under), and player props, giving you multiple ways to trade on this game. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Shares in the correct outcome pay out $1 each when the market resolves after the game ends.

As of now, the “Tobias vs. Fernando” market has generated $429.9K in total trading volume across all market types (moneyline, spreads, totals, and player props). This volume reflects active engagement from the Polymarket trading community, and a deeper pool of traders generally means more informative, reliable odds. You can track live price movements and trade on any market directly on this page.

To trade on “Tobias vs. Fernando,” start by choosing the market type you want to trade: Moneyline (which team wins), Spreads (margin of victory), Totals (combined score over/under), or Player Props (individual player stat lines). Each market shows the current price for each side — for example, the moneyline shows RAF11 at 0¢ and LUC8 at 100¢. Select the side you want to trade, choose Buy to take a position or Sell to close an existing one, enter your amount, and click Trade. If your chosen side is correct when the game ends and the market resolves, your shares pay out $1 each. If it’s incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before the game ends to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current moneyline odds for “Tobias vs. Fernando” show Lucas Fernando at 100¢ (100% implied probability) and Rafael Tobias at 0¢ (0%). All odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, reflecting the latest collective view of how this game will play out. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as game time approaches.

The “Tobias vs. Fernando” market resolves based on the official final score of the UFC game as reported by UFC’s official results, including overtime if applicable. Moneyline markets resolve to the team that wins the game. Spread markets resolve based on the final margin of victory relative to the posted line. Totals (over/under) markets resolve based on the combined final score of both teams. Player prop markets resolve based on official box score statistics. If the game is postponed or canceled, the market resolution rules (available in the Rules section on this page) specify how that scenario is handled. We recommend reviewing the full resolution criteria before trading.