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icon for Will Drake release a new album by...?

Will Drake release a new album by...?

icon for Will Drake release a new album by...?

Will Drake release a new album by...?

NEW
Oct 1, 2026
Polymarket

$4,395 Vol.

Polymarket

September 30

$1,540 Vol.

31%

December 31

$2,855 Vol.

48%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Drake officially releases a new album between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The resolution source will be any official music streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.Drake’s ongoing 2026 rollout fuels trader focus on another album before year-end. After the May 15 triple drop of Iceman, Habibti, and Maid of Honour—which swept the Billboard 200’s top three—Drake shifted attention in August with “FOMO 2026” social posts and a CD cover image. He escalated the campaign on September 3–4 by confirming a September 15 YouTube livestream at 9 p.m. ET, complete with island and Ferris wheel emojis that fans interpret as signals of new music or visuals. This rapid follow-up to his largest single-year output in years, paired with his history of surprise drops and cryptic teases, keeps implied probabilities elevated for at least one more project while highlighting the uncertainty around whether the stream itself resolves into a full album.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Drake officially releases a new album between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.

Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.

The resolution source will be any official music streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Drake officially releases a new album between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The resolution source will be any official music streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.
Volume
$4,395
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Drake officially releases a new album between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The resolution source will be any official music streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.Drake’s ongoing 2026 rollout fuels trader focus on another album before year-end. After the May 15 triple drop of Iceman, Habibti, and Maid of Honour—which swept the Billboard 200’s top three—Drake shifted attention in August with “FOMO 2026” social posts and a CD cover image. He escalated the campaign on September 3–4 by confirming a September 15 YouTube livestream at 9 p.m. ET, complete with island and Ferris wheel emojis that fans interpret as signals of new music or visuals. This rapid follow-up to his largest single-year output in years, paired with his history of surprise drops and cryptic teases, keeps implied probabilities elevated for at least one more project while highlighting the uncertainty around whether the stream itself resolves into a full album.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Drake officially releases a new album between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.

Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.

The resolution source will be any official music streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Drake officially releases a new album between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The resolution source will be any official music streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.
Volume
$4,395
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Drake release a new album by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 48%, followed by "September 30" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 48¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Drake release a new album by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 4, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Drake release a new album by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Drake release a new album by...?" is "December 31" at 48%, meaning the market assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 30" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Drake release a new album by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.