Elevated crude oil prices near $100 per barrel, driven by ongoing volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East supply disruptions, have pushed the national regular gasoline average to $4.44–$4.47 per gallon as of September 18, 2026, according to AAA data. This marks a rise of over $1.20 year-over-year, with the lowest state averages—Indiana at approximately $3.99, Mississippi at $3.96, and Louisiana near $4.00—remaining well above the $3.75 threshold. Strong demand, reported by the EIA at 8.79 million barrels per day, and limited near-term relief from inventories or policy shifts reinforce upward pressure on retail prices. Traders monitoring FOMC signals, weekly EIA releases, and any geopolitical de-escalation assess these fundamentals as the dominant factors sustaining elevated levels across all states.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Sep 20, 2026
September 20
14%
September 30
36%
October 31
17%
$556 Vol.
September 20
$338 Vol.
14%
September 30
$40 Vol.
36%
October 31
$208 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.Elevated crude oil prices near $100 per barrel, driven by ongoing volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East supply disruptions, have pushed the national regular gasoline average to $4.44–$4.47 per gallon as of September 18, 2026, according to AAA data. This marks a rise of over $1.20 year-over-year, with the lowest state averages—Indiana at approximately $3.99, Mississippi at $3.96, and Louisiana near $4.00—remaining well above the $3.75 threshold. Strong demand, reported by the EIA at 8.79 million barrels per day, and limited near-term relief from inventories or policy shifts reinforce upward pressure on retail prices. Traders monitoring FOMC signals, weekly EIA releases, and any geopolitical de-escalation assess these fundamentals as the dominant factors sustaining elevated levels across all states.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 1:06 PM ET
Volume
$556End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 1:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.Elevated crude oil prices near $100 per barrel, driven by ongoing volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East supply disruptions, have pushed the national regular gasoline average to $4.44–$4.47 per gallon as of September 18, 2026, according to AAA data. This marks a rise of over $1.20 year-over-year, with the lowest state averages—Indiana at approximately $3.99, Mississippi at $3.96, and Louisiana near $4.00—remaining well above the $3.75 threshold. Strong demand, reported by the EIA at 8.79 million barrels per day, and limited near-term relief from inventories or policy shifts reinforce upward pressure on retail prices. Traders monitoring FOMC signals, weekly EIA releases, and any geopolitical de-escalation assess these fundamentals as the dominant factors sustaining elevated levels across all states.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the average regular gas price for any US state is below $3.75 per gallon using unrounded figures. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
Washington D.C. will not be considered a state despite its inclusion in the data provided by the resolution source.
This market will resolve based on the gas prices provided by AAA for the specified date, once the update for that date is made available. In the event that this source does not present the relevant information by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will remain open for two full calendar day for it to update. If it remains unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be State gas prices published by the the American Automobile Association (AAA) at https://gasprices.aaa.com/.
Volume
$556End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 1:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated crude oil prices near $100 per barrel, driven by ongoing volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East supply disruptions, have pushed the national regular gasoline average to $4.44–$4.47 per gallon as of September 18, 2026, according to AAA data. This marks a rise of over $1.20 year-over-year, with the lowest state averages—Indiana at approximately $3.99, Mississippi at $3.96, and Louisiana near $4.00—remaining well above the $3.75 threshold. Strong demand, reported by the EIA at 8.79 million barrels per day, and limited near-term relief from inventories or policy shifts reinforce upward pressure on retail prices. Traders monitoring FOMC signals, weekly EIA releases, and any geopolitical de-escalation assess these fundamentals as the dominant factors sustaining elevated levels across all states.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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