Recent FIFA inspections of Spanish venues and firm statements from RFEF president Rafael Louzan that the final belongs in Spain—favoring the renovated Santiago Bernabéu—have reinforced trader positioning around Madrid while highlighting ongoing negotiations among co-hosts. Morocco’s claims for the new 115,000-capacity Hassan II Stadium near Casablanca remain a credible alternative, supported by its scale and federation advocacy, though Portugal lacks comparable options. The dominant 61.5% probability on an unconfirmed outcome by 2028 reflects FIFA’s expected timeline for a decision, ongoing stadium assessments, and political sensitivities around continental rotation and host equity. Barcelona’s lower odds align with renovation delays at Camp Nou relative to the Bernabéu.