Skip to main content
icon for WM: Erstes Elfmeterschießen oder verpasst?
Sport·Fußball

WM: Erstes Elfmeterschießen oder verpasst?

icon for WM: Erstes Elfmeterschießen oder verpasst?
Sport·Fußball

WM: Erstes Elfmeterschießen oder verpasst?

Made

79% Chance
Polymarket
NEU

Made

79% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
This market will resolve to “Made” if the first penalty kick taken in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is scored. This market will resolve to “Missed” if the first penalty kick taken is missed or saved. The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Historical conversion rates for in-game penalty kicks during FIFA World Cup matches stand near 79% since 1978, directly aligning with current trader pricing on a successful first spot-kick of the 2026 tournament. This figure exceeds shootout success rates, which hover around 69-70%, because open-play penalties typically feature experienced takers under less accumulated pressure. No team-specific form, injuries, or roster details apply yet, as the opening fixture and early group-stage matches determine the initial taker amid standard league-style dynamics. Recent international cycles show consistent 75-82% conversion across major tournaments, underscoring why the market treats a miss as the lower-probability outcome absent unusual goalkeeper matchups or weather factors.

This market will resolve to “Made” if the first penalty kick taken in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is scored. This market will resolve to “Missed” if the first penalty kick taken is missed or saved.

The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$6,124
Enddatum
20. Juli 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jun 7, 2026, 12:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Made” if the first penalty kick taken in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is scored. This market will resolve to “Missed” if the first penalty kick taken is missed or saved. The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Made” if the first penalty kick taken in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is scored. This market will resolve to “Missed” if the first penalty kick taken is missed or saved. The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Historical conversion rates for in-game penalty kicks during FIFA World Cup matches stand near 79% since 1978, directly aligning with current trader pricing on a successful first spot-kick of the 2026 tournament. This figure exceeds shootout success rates, which hover around 69-70%, because open-play penalties typically feature experienced takers under less accumulated pressure. No team-specific form, injuries, or roster details apply yet, as the opening fixture and early group-stage matches determine the initial taker amid standard league-style dynamics. Recent international cycles show consistent 75-82% conversion across major tournaments, underscoring why the market treats a miss as the lower-probability outcome absent unusual goalkeeper matchups or weather factors.

This market will resolve to “Made” if the first penalty kick taken in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is scored. This market will resolve to “Missed” if the first penalty kick taken is missed or saved.

The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$6,124
Enddatum
20. Juli 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jun 7, 2026, 12:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Made” if the first penalty kick taken in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is scored. This market will resolve to “Missed” if the first penalty kick taken is missed or saved. The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„WM: Erstes Elfmeterschießen oder verpasst?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 2 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed?" mit 79%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 79¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 79% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„WM: Erstes Elfmeterschießen oder verpasst?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Jun 7, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „WM: Erstes Elfmeterschießen oder verpasst?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 2 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „WM: Erstes Elfmeterschießen oder verpasst?" ist „World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed?" mit 79%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 79% zuweist. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „WM: Erstes Elfmeterschießen oder verpasst?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.