**England, Croatia, Ghana, and Panama contest Group L at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with matches beginning June 17.** Trader consensus prices Panama as the clear favorite to finish last (59.5% implied probability), reflecting its status as the group’s lowest-ranked side and limited recent international success. Ghana sits next at 34%, buoyed by greater African Cup of Nations pedigree and a recent coaching change, yet still viewed as vulnerable against the two European sides. Croatia (6.5%) and England (1.3%) carry negligible probabilities of finishing bottom, consistent with their deeper squads, World Cup experience, and expected dominance in a group where they are projected to claim the top two spots. Recent previews highlight Panama’s challenging schedule and historical struggles against stronger opposition as the primary drivers of its position, while Ghana’s mixed pre-tournament results and internal adjustments keep its last-place odds elevated but below Panama’s. The market’s wisdom of crowds, expressed through these probabilities, underscores the large gap in squad depth and form between the European pair and the two CONCACAF/African sides heading into the group stage.