Spain leads the 2026 World Cup winner market at 17% implied probability, narrowly ahead of France at 16.1%, as both enter as the standout European sides following strong qualification campaigns and Spain's Euro 2024 title. England and Portugal sit level at 10.8% while Argentina and Brazil trail slightly, reflecting the depth across the top six contenders. Recent international form, squad talent including emerging stars, and coaching stability underpin the tight clustering, with no single team separating decisively ahead of the June 11 kickoff. The expanded 48-team format and potential for upsets in a longer knockout path keep probabilities bunched, as traders weigh historical patterns against current roster health and group-stage matchups.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoEspaña 17.0%
Francia 16.1%
Inglaterra 10.8%
Portugal 10.8%
$1,958,022,100 Vol.
$1,958,022,100 Vol.
20 jul 2026
España
17%
Francia
16%
Inglaterra
11%
Portugal
11%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
8%
Alemania
5%
Países Bajos
4%
Noruega
2%
Bélgica
2%
Colombia
2%
Japón
2%
Marruecos
2%
México
1%
Suiza
1%
Turquía
1%
USA
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croacia
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Austria
<1%
Canadá
<1%
Suecia
<1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Escocia
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Irán
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
RD del Congo
<1%
Chequia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Irak
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
España 17.0%
Francia 16.1%
Inglaterra 10.8%
Portugal 10.8%
$1,958,022,100 Vol.
$1,958,022,100 Vol.
20 jul 2026
España
$37,463,002 Vol.
17%
Francia
$44,000,626 Vol.
16%
Inglaterra
$32,446,608 Vol.
11%
Portugal
$39,238,219 Vol.
11%
Argentina
$34,839,619 Vol.
9%
Brasil
$33,990,288 Vol.
8%
Alemania
$36,186,672 Vol.
5%
Países Bajos
$38,463,280 Vol.
4%
Noruega
$37,293,817 Vol.
2%
Bélgica
$40,210,453 Vol.
2%
Colombia
$40,352,620 Vol.
2%
Japón
$40,730,940 Vol.
2%
Marruecos
$44,015,464 Vol.
2%
México
$44,173,978 Vol.
1%
Suiza
$39,033,173 Vol.
1%
Turquía
$36,811,869 Vol.
1%
USA
$56,488,481 Vol.
1%
Uruguay
$39,470,980 Vol.
1%
Croacia
$45,131,173 Vol.
1%
Ecuador
$45,004,607 Vol.
1%
Senegal
$38,970,952 Vol.
1%
Costa de Marfil
$52,621,194 Vol.
<1%
Austria
$43,172,142 Vol.
<1%
Canadá
$44,090,254 Vol.
<1%
Suecia
$29,866,820 Vol.
<1%
Corea del Sur
$48,388,876 Vol.
<1%
Escocia
$42,303,611 Vol.
<1%
Egipto
$51,305,585 Vol.
<1%
Irán
$44,609,379 Vol.
<1%
Ghana
$36,981,021 Vol.
<1%
Argelia
$44,689,824 Vol.
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
$27,955,008 Vol.
<1%
Paraguay
$42,076,718 Vol.
<1%
RD del Congo
$57,797,904 Vol.
<1%
Chequia
$31,090,346 Vol.
<1%
Australia
$46,197,871 Vol.
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
$45,486,877 Vol.
<1%
Haití
$32,043,278 Vol.
<1%
Jordania
$31,615,970 Vol.
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
$41,680,839 Vol.
<1%
Túnez
$35,517,463 Vol.
<1%
Uzbekistán
$59,663,014 Vol.
<1%
Panamá
$19,385,468 Vol.
<1%
Irak
$28,870,732 Vol.
<1%
Sudáfrica
$38,252,430 Vol.
<1%
Cabo Verde
$40,218,190 Vol.
<1%
Qatar
$41,906,699 Vol.
<1%
Saudi Arabia
$47,629,414 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain leads the 2026 World Cup winner market at 17% implied probability, narrowly ahead of France at 16.1%, as both enter as the standout European sides following strong qualification campaigns and Spain's Euro 2024 title. England and Portugal sit level at 10.8% while Argentina and Brazil trail slightly, reflecting the depth across the top six contenders. Recent international form, squad talent including emerging stars, and coaching stability underpin the tight clustering, with no single team separating decisively ahead of the June 11 kickoff. The expanded 48-team format and potential for upsets in a longer knockout path keep probabilities bunched, as traders weigh historical patterns against current roster health and group-stage matchups.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Volumen
$1,958,022,100Fecha de finalización
20 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Spain leads the 2026 World Cup winner market at 17% implied probability, narrowly ahead of France at 16.1%, as both enter as the standout European sides following strong qualification campaigns and Spain's Euro 2024 title. England and Portugal sit level at 10.8% while Argentina and Brazil trail slightly, reflecting the depth across the top six contenders. Recent international form, squad talent including emerging stars, and coaching stability underpin the tight clustering, with no single team separating decisively ahead of the June 11 kickoff. The expanded 48-team format and potential for upsets in a longer knockout path keep probabilities bunched, as traders weigh historical patterns against current roster health and group-stage matchups.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$1,958,022,100Fecha de finalización
20 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain leads the 2026 World Cup winner market at 17% implied probability, narrowly ahead of France at 16.1%, as both enter as the standout European sides following strong qualification campaigns and Spain's Euro 2024 title. England and Portugal sit level at 10.8% while Argentina and Brazil trail slightly, reflecting the depth across the top six contenders. Recent international form, squad talent including emerging stars, and coaching stability underpin the tight clustering, with no single team separating decisively ahead of the June 11 kickoff. The expanded 48-team format and potential for upsets in a longer knockout path keep probabilities bunched, as traders weigh historical patterns against current roster health and group-stage matchups.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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