A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).**Nigel Farage's resignation as MP for Clacton on 7 July 2026, amid parliamentary scrutiny over undeclared financial gifts and donor support, has triggered the by-election, which he immediately announced he will contest.** Traders price him at 87% to win, reflecting his 2024 general election victory in the seat with 46.2% of the vote for Reform UK and a substantial majority over the Conservatives. The move frames the contest as a direct appeal to voters against institutional oversight, with investigations into his finances set to pause during the campaign but potentially resume if he succeeds. Other candidates trail notably, including Labour's Jovan Owusu-Nepaul at 44% and Conservative Giles Watling at 39%, aligning with their lower shares in the prior election. Early betting markets also show Reform UK as heavy favorites, consistent with the constituency's recent voting pattern and Farage's established local support. The by-election date remains to be confirmed but is expected shortly.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
**Nigel Farage's resignation as MP for Clacton on 7 July 2026, amid parliamentary scrutiny over undeclared financial gifts and donor support, has triggered the by-election, which he immediately announced he will contest.** Traders price him at 87% to win, reflecting his 2024 general election victory in the seat with 46.2% of the vote for Reform UK and a substantial majority over the Conservatives. The move frames the contest as a direct appeal to voters against institutional oversight, with investigations into his finances set to pause during the campaign but potentially resume if he succeeds. Other candidates trail notably, including Labour's Jovan Owusu-Nepaul at 44% and Conservative Giles Watling at 39%, aligning with their lower shares in the prior election. Early betting markets also show Reform UK as heavy favorites, consistent with the constituency's recent voting pattern and Farage's established local support. The by-election date remains to be confirmed but is expected shortly.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Jul 8 2026
Farage's rivals publicly criticize by-election as a political stunt amid financial scrutiny
Nigel Farage drops to 90%5%
Opposition parties and figures criticized Farage's by-election as a distraction from financial investigations, reinforcing their decision not to contest and solidifying Farage's dominant position in the race.
Jul 8 2026
Reform UK requests Clacton by-election date of August 6
Following Farage's resignation, Reform UK formally requested the by-election be held on August 6, setting the expected timeline for the contest and confirming Farage's intention to stand again.
Jul 8 2026
Chancellor Rachel Reeves approves Farage's resignation and by-election
Rachel Reeves formally accepted Farage's resignation, allowing the by-election to proceed despite calls to block it until investigations conclude. This confirmed the by-election's legitimacy and timing.
Jul 7 2026
Major parties rule out contesting Clacton by-election triggered by Farage's resignation
Nigel Farage jumps to 95%8%
Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Green Party, and Restore Britain all announced they would not stand candidates against Farage, effectively boycotting the by-election. This reduced competition and increased Farage's chances of winning significantly.
Jul 7 2026
Comedian Count Binface confirms candidacy in Clacton by-election against Farage
Count Binface rises to 7%3%
Count Binface, a satirical candidate, confirmed he would stand in the by-election, becoming Farage's only significant challenger after major parties boycotted. This introduced a novelty element to the race but did not seriously threaten Farage's lead.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface confirms candidacy as sole major challenger to Farage
Count Binface rises to 8%4%
Comedian Jon Harvey, running as Count Binface, confirmed he would stand in the by-election, becoming the only significant opponent to Farage. This led to a modest increase in Binface's market probability from 4% to 8%.
Jul 7 2026
Tony Mack declines to run in Clacton by-election, calls Farage's move cynical
Tony Mack plunges to 0%37%
Tony Mack, former Reform candidate displaced by Farage in 2024, announced he would not stand in the by-election, criticizing Farage's resignation as a cynical ploy. This removed a potential challenger, reinforcing Farage's dominance.
Jul 7 2026
Labour candidate Jovan Owusu-Nepaul and others ruled out by party for by-election
Jovan Owusu-Nepaul plunges to 0%44%
Labour decided not to contest the by-election, withdrawing support for Jovan Owusu-Nepaul and other candidates, citing Farage's financial scandal and strategic focus elsewhere. This led to a collapse in their market probabilities to near zero.
Jul 7 2026
Major parties announce boycott of Clacton by-election triggered by Farage
Nigel Farage jumps to 93%6%
Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Restore Britain all ruled out contesting the by-election, effectively leaving Farage without major party opposition. This reduced competition increased Farage's chances and market price.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface confirms candidacy for Clacton by-election as sole major challenger to Farage
Count Binface rises to 7%3%
Comedian Jon Harvey, running as Count Binface, confirmed he would stand in the by-election, becoming the only notable challenger to Farage. This led to a rise in Binface's market price from 4% to around 7-8%.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface gains media attention as main opposition in Clacton by-election
Count Binface rises to 7%3%
Media coverage highlighted Count Binface as the main challenger to Farage, increasing public awareness and market interest, which contributed to his price rise in the prediction market.
Jul 7 2026
Nigel Farage frames by-election as 'people versus the establishment' contest
Nigel Farage jumps to 93%6%
Farage positioned the by-election as a referendum on his political standing amid allegations, appealing to his base and reinforcing his market odds as the favorite to win.
Jul 7 2026
Nigel Farage resigns as MP for Clacton, triggering by-election which he will contest
Nigel Farage jumps to 95%8%
Farage announced his resignation to force a by-election and stand again, aiming to let the people of Clacton judge him amid allegations of undeclared gifts and financial scrutiny. This announcement caused Farage's market probability to rise sharply to around 87-95%.
Jul 7 2026
Major parties boycott Clacton by-election amid Farage's financial scandal
Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Restore Britain all ruled out contesting the by-election, citing Farage's ongoing parliamentary standards investigation and calling the by-election a political stunt. This reduced the chances of other candidates and consolidated Farage's position as the favorite.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).**Nigel Farage's resignation as MP for Clacton on 7 July 2026, amid parliamentary scrutiny over undeclared financial gifts and donor support, has triggered the by-election, which he immediately announced he will contest.** Traders price him at 87% to win, reflecting his 2024 general election victory in the seat with 46.2% of the vote for Reform UK and a substantial majority over the Conservatives. The move frames the contest as a direct appeal to voters against institutional oversight, with investigations into his finances set to pause during the campaign but potentially resume if he succeeds. Other candidates trail notably, including Labour's Jovan Owusu-Nepaul at 44% and Conservative Giles Watling at 39%, aligning with their lower shares in the prior election. Early betting markets also show Reform UK as heavy favorites, consistent with the constituency's recent voting pattern and Farage's established local support. The by-election date remains to be confirmed but is expected shortly.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
**Nigel Farage's resignation as MP for Clacton on 7 July 2026, amid parliamentary scrutiny over undeclared financial gifts and donor support, has triggered the by-election, which he immediately announced he will contest.** Traders price him at 87% to win, reflecting his 2024 general election victory in the seat with 46.2% of the vote for Reform UK and a substantial majority over the Conservatives. The move frames the contest as a direct appeal to voters against institutional oversight, with investigations into his finances set to pause during the campaign but potentially resume if he succeeds. Other candidates trail notably, including Labour's Jovan Owusu-Nepaul at 44% and Conservative Giles Watling at 39%, aligning with their lower shares in the prior election. Early betting markets also show Reform UK as heavy favorites, consistent with the constituency's recent voting pattern and Farage's established local support. The by-election date remains to be confirmed but is expected shortly.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Jul 8 2026
Farage's rivals publicly criticize by-election as a political stunt amid financial scrutiny
Nigel Farage drops to 90%5%
Opposition parties and figures criticized Farage's by-election as a distraction from financial investigations, reinforcing their decision not to contest and solidifying Farage's dominant position in the race.
Jul 8 2026
Reform UK requests Clacton by-election date of August 6
Following Farage's resignation, Reform UK formally requested the by-election be held on August 6, setting the expected timeline for the contest and confirming Farage's intention to stand again.
Jul 8 2026
Chancellor Rachel Reeves approves Farage's resignation and by-election
Rachel Reeves formally accepted Farage's resignation, allowing the by-election to proceed despite calls to block it until investigations conclude. This confirmed the by-election's legitimacy and timing.
Jul 7 2026
Major parties rule out contesting Clacton by-election triggered by Farage's resignation
Nigel Farage jumps to 95%8%
Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Green Party, and Restore Britain all announced they would not stand candidates against Farage, effectively boycotting the by-election. This reduced competition and increased Farage's chances of winning significantly.
Jul 7 2026
Comedian Count Binface confirms candidacy in Clacton by-election against Farage
Count Binface rises to 7%3%
Count Binface, a satirical candidate, confirmed he would stand in the by-election, becoming Farage's only significant challenger after major parties boycotted. This introduced a novelty element to the race but did not seriously threaten Farage's lead.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface confirms candidacy as sole major challenger to Farage
Count Binface rises to 8%4%
Comedian Jon Harvey, running as Count Binface, confirmed he would stand in the by-election, becoming the only significant opponent to Farage. This led to a modest increase in Binface's market probability from 4% to 8%.
Jul 7 2026
Tony Mack declines to run in Clacton by-election, calls Farage's move cynical
Tony Mack plunges to 0%37%
Tony Mack, former Reform candidate displaced by Farage in 2024, announced he would not stand in the by-election, criticizing Farage's resignation as a cynical ploy. This removed a potential challenger, reinforcing Farage's dominance.
Jul 7 2026
Labour candidate Jovan Owusu-Nepaul and others ruled out by party for by-election
Jovan Owusu-Nepaul plunges to 0%44%
Labour decided not to contest the by-election, withdrawing support for Jovan Owusu-Nepaul and other candidates, citing Farage's financial scandal and strategic focus elsewhere. This led to a collapse in their market probabilities to near zero.
Jul 7 2026
Major parties announce boycott of Clacton by-election triggered by Farage
Nigel Farage jumps to 93%6%
Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Restore Britain all ruled out contesting the by-election, effectively leaving Farage without major party opposition. This reduced competition increased Farage's chances and market price.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface confirms candidacy for Clacton by-election as sole major challenger to Farage
Count Binface rises to 7%3%
Comedian Jon Harvey, running as Count Binface, confirmed he would stand in the by-election, becoming the only notable challenger to Farage. This led to a rise in Binface's market price from 4% to around 7-8%.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface gains media attention as main opposition in Clacton by-election
Count Binface rises to 7%3%
Media coverage highlighted Count Binface as the main challenger to Farage, increasing public awareness and market interest, which contributed to his price rise in the prediction market.
Jul 7 2026
Nigel Farage frames by-election as 'people versus the establishment' contest
Nigel Farage jumps to 93%6%
Farage positioned the by-election as a referendum on his political standing amid allegations, appealing to his base and reinforcing his market odds as the favorite to win.
Jul 7 2026
Nigel Farage resigns as MP for Clacton, triggering by-election which he will contest
Nigel Farage jumps to 95%8%
Farage announced his resignation to force a by-election and stand again, aiming to let the people of Clacton judge him amid allegations of undeclared gifts and financial scrutiny. This announcement caused Farage's market probability to rise sharply to around 87-95%.
Jul 7 2026
Major parties boycott Clacton by-election amid Farage's financial scandal
Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Restore Britain all ruled out contesting the by-election, citing Farage's ongoing parliamentary standards investigation and calling the by-election a political stunt. This reduced the chances of other candidates and consolidated Farage's position as the favorite.
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Questions fréquentes
« Clacton by-election Winner » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 8 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Nigel Farage » à 90%, suivi de « Count Binface » à 8%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 90¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 90% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.
À ce jour, « Clacton by-election Winner » a généré $1.1 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jul 7, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.
Pour trader sur « Clacton by-election Winner », parcourez les 8 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.
Le favori actuel pour « Clacton by-election Winner » est « Nigel Farage » à 90%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 90% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Count Binface » à 8%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.
Les règles de résolution de « Clacton by-election Winner » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.
Oui. Vous n'avez pas besoin de trader pour rester informé. Cette page sert de suivi en direct pour « Clacton by-election Winner ». Les probabilités des résultats sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que de nouvelles transactions arrivent. Vous pouvez ajouter cette page à vos favoris et consulter la section commentaires pour voir ce que disent les autres traders. Vous pouvez également utiliser les filtres de plage temporelle sur le graphique pour voir comment les cotes ont évolué au fil du temps.
Les cotes de Polymarket sont fixées par de vrais traders qui mettent de l'argent réel derrière leurs convictions, ce qui tend à produire des prédictions précises. Avec $1.1 million échangés sur « Clacton by-election Winner », ces prix agrègent les connaissances collectives et la conviction de milliers de participants — surpassant souvent les sondages, les prévisions d’experts et les enquêtes traditionnelles. Les marchés de prédiction comme Polymarket ont un solide historique de précision, surtout à mesure que les événements approchent de leur date de résolution. Par exemple, Polymarket a un score de précision sur un mois de 94%. Pour les dernières statistiques sur la précision des prédictions de Polymarket, visitez la page de précision sur Polymarket.
Pour placer votre première transaction sur « Clacton by-election Winner », inscrivez-vous pour un compte Polymarket gratuit et approvisionnez-le en utilisant des cryptomonnaies, une carte de crédit ou débit, ou un virement bancaire. Une fois votre compte approvisionné, revenez sur cette page, sélectionnez le résultat sur lequel vous souhaitez trader, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous êtes nouveau dans les marchés de prédiction, cliquez sur le lien « Comment ça marche » en haut de n'importe quelle page Polymarket pour un guide étape par étape.
Sur Polymarket, le prix de chaque résultat représente la probabilité implicite du marché. Un prix de 90¢ pour « Nigel Farage » sur le marché « Clacton by-election Winner » signifie que les traders estiment collectivement qu'il y a environ une probabilité de 90% que « Nigel Farage » sera le résultat correct. Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » à 90¢ et que le résultat est correct, vous recevez $1,00 par part — un gain de 10¢ par part. S'il est incorrect, ces parts valent $0.
Le marché « Clacton by-election Winner » est prévu pour être résolu autour du Jun 30, 2027. Cela signifie que le trading restera ouvert et les cotes continueront d'évoluer jusqu'à cette date. Le moment exact de la résolution dépend de la disponibilité du résultat officiel, comme décrit dans la section « Règles ».
Le marché « Clacton by-election Winner » a une communauté active de 43 commentaires où les traders partagent leurs analyses, débattent des résultats et discutent des derniers développements. Faites défiler jusqu'à la section commentaires ci-dessous pour lire ce que pensent les autres participants. Vous pouvez également filtrer par « Principaux détenteurs » ou consulter l'onglet « Activité » pour un flux en temps réel des transactions.
Polymarket est le plus grand marché de prédiction au monde, où vous pouvez rester informé et profiter de vos connaissances sur les événements du monde réel. Les traders achètent et vendent des parts sur des résultats allant de la politique et des élections aux cryptomonnaies, finances, sports, technologie et culture, y compris des marchés comme « Clacton by-election Winner ». Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel soutenues par une conviction financière, fournissant souvent des signaux plus rapides et plus précis que les sondages, les commentateurs ou les enquêtes traditionnelles.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes