Claudio Lotito’s firm public denials of any sale, repeated in February 2026 against reported Qatari bids, anchor the near-even 50 percent probability for a 2026 exit. The longtime president, who has controlled the Biancocelesti since 2004, has tied his stance to ongoing Flaminio Stadium redevelopment and projected debt reduction by 2027, moves that favor continuity. Counterbalancing factors include sustained fan discontent, including a 40,000-signature petition and protests over squad sales and limited spending, plus recent contract freezes until June 2026 that signal financial caution. These pressures create realistic upside for a change in ownership, while the absence of concrete offers or forced timelines keeps the market balanced. Any breakthrough on stadium financing or renewed takeover interest could shift sentiment sharply in either direction.