Elon Musk's high-volume posting rhythm on X continues to anchor trader expectations for the May 12–19 window, with the 200–219 bucket holding the clearest lead at 45.6% implied probability. Daily commentary on SpaceX missions, Grok updates, Tesla developments, and quick-hit replies to trending topics has kept momentum steady through mid-week, mirroring his established pattern of 30–50 posts on active days. Recent engagement spikes around AI tool releases and space docking footage have added incremental volume without pushing into outlier territory. With only one day remaining before the period closes, any final burst of replies or announcements could still nudge the total toward the upper end of the favored range, while a quiet close would lock in the current market consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour200-219 44.8%
220-239 33.7%
180-199 7.5%
240-259 7.2%
$9,950,802 Vol.
$9,950,802 Vol.
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
8%
200-219
45%
220-239
34%
240-259
7%
260-279
3%
280-299
1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
200-219 44.8%
220-239 33.7%
180-199 7.5%
240-259 7.2%
$9,950,802 Vol.
$9,950,802 Vol.
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
8%
200-219
45%
220-239
34%
240-259
7%
260-279
3%
280-299
1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : May 9, 2026, 4:07 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Source de résolution
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk's high-volume posting rhythm on X continues to anchor trader expectations for the May 12–19 window, with the 200–219 bucket holding the clearest lead at 45.6% implied probability. Daily commentary on SpaceX missions, Grok updates, Tesla developments, and quick-hit replies to trending topics has kept momentum steady through mid-week, mirroring his established pattern of 30–50 posts on active days. Recent engagement spikes around AI tool releases and space docking footage have added incremental volume without pushing into outlier territory. With only one day remaining before the period closes, any final burst of replies or announcements could still nudge the total toward the upper end of the favored range, while a quiet close would lock in the current market consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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