Elon Musk's July 30 announcement that Grok 4.6 would arrive in roughly one week, targeting around August 7, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment for xAI's next model release. Following the mid-July launch of Grok 4.5, which quickly topped several agent and cybersecurity benchmarks, the company appears to be accelerating its cadence with improved supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning on the same 1.5-trillion-parameter base. This positions the update to close the gap with frontier rivals such as Claude Opus 4.8 and Kimi K3 while preserving token efficiency. A larger 2.1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.7 is already slated for a few weeks later. With the target date only hours away, any slippage or last-minute confirmation from xAI could sharply shift implied probabilities in the coming days.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
$18,019 Vol.
7 août 2026
7 août
14%
14 août
84%
$18,019 Vol.
7 août
$9,583 Vol.
14%
14 août
$8,436 Vol.
84%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk's July 30 announcement that Grok 4.6 would arrive in roughly one week, targeting around August 7, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment for xAI's next model release. Following the mid-July launch of Grok 4.5, which quickly topped several agent and cybersecurity benchmarks, the company appears to be accelerating its cadence with improved supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning on the same 1.5-trillion-parameter base. This positions the update to close the gap with frontier rivals such as Claude Opus 4.8 and Kimi K3 while preserving token efficiency. A larger 2.1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.7 is already slated for a few weeks later. With the target date only hours away, any slippage or last-minute confirmation from xAI could sharply shift implied probabilities in the coming days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Volume
$18,019Date de fin
14 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk's July 30 announcement that Grok 4.6 would arrive in roughly one week, targeting around August 7, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment for xAI's next model release. Following the mid-July launch of Grok 4.5, which quickly topped several agent and cybersecurity benchmarks, the company appears to be accelerating its cadence with improved supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning on the same 1.5-trillion-parameter base. This positions the update to close the gap with frontier rivals such as Claude Opus 4.8 and Kimi K3 while preserving token efficiency. A larger 2.1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.7 is already slated for a few weeks later. With the target date only hours away, any slippage or last-minute confirmation from xAI could sharply shift implied probabilities in the coming days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$18,019Date de fin
14 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elon Musk's July 30 announcement that Grok 4.6 would arrive in roughly one week, targeting around August 7, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment for xAI's next model release. Following the mid-July launch of Grok 4.5, which quickly topped several agent and cybersecurity benchmarks, the company appears to be accelerating its cadence with improved supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning on the same 1.5-trillion-parameter base. This positions the update to close the gap with frontier rivals such as Claude Opus 4.8 and Kimi K3 while preserving token efficiency. A larger 2.1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.7 is already slated for a few weeks later. With the target date only hours away, any slippage or last-minute confirmation from xAI could sharply shift implied probabilities in the coming days.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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