Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, point to a peak temperature near 33°C on September 1 under clear skies and light southerly flow, driving the tight market-implied odds favoring 34–35°C. Madrid’s continental climate and elevated plateau location amplify daytime heating when high pressure and dry air masses persist, consistent with the ongoing late-summer warmth that has kept recent daily maxima in the low-to-mid 30s. Ensemble spread and minor differences in boundary-layer mixing or wind direction create the narrow uncertainty between 34°C and 35°C, while probabilities for 36°C or higher remain low absent stronger advection. Official AEMET observations on the day will determine resolution, with final model updates and any last adjustments to steering patterns the key near-term variables for traders.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Madrid le 1er septembre ?
La température la plus élevée à Madrid le 1er septembre ?
35°C 46%
34°C 43%
33°C 10%
32°C 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 sept. 2026
30°C or below
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
9%
33°C
10%
34°C
43%
35°C
46%
36°C
8%
37°C
4%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
35°C 46%
34°C 43%
33°C 10%
32°C 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 sept. 2026
30°C or below
$29 Vol.
1%
31°C
$0 Vol.
2%
32°C
$0 Vol.
9%
33°C
$0 Vol.
10%
34°C
$39 Vol.
43%
35°C
$29 Vol.
46%
36°C
$7 Vol.
8%
37°C
$0 Vol.
4%
38°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, point to a peak temperature near 33°C on September 1 under clear skies and light southerly flow, driving the tight market-implied odds favoring 34–35°C. Madrid’s continental climate and elevated plateau location amplify daytime heating when high pressure and dry air masses persist, consistent with the ongoing late-summer warmth that has kept recent daily maxima in the low-to-mid 30s. Ensemble spread and minor differences in boundary-layer mixing or wind direction create the narrow uncertainty between 34°C and 35°C, while probabilities for 36°C or higher remain low absent stronger advection. Official AEMET observations on the day will determine resolution, with final model updates and any last adjustments to steering patterns the key near-term variables for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$103Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, point to a peak temperature near 33°C on September 1 under clear skies and light southerly flow, driving the tight market-implied odds favoring 34–35°C. Madrid’s continental climate and elevated plateau location amplify daytime heating when high pressure and dry air masses persist, consistent with the ongoing late-summer warmth that has kept recent daily maxima in the low-to-mid 30s. Ensemble spread and minor differences in boundary-layer mixing or wind direction create the narrow uncertainty between 34°C and 35°C, while probabilities for 36°C or higher remain low absent stronger advection. Official AEMET observations on the day will determine resolution, with final model updates and any last adjustments to steering patterns the key near-term variables for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$103Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, point to a peak temperature near 33°C on September 1 under clear skies and light southerly flow, driving the tight market-implied odds favoring 34–35°C. Madrid’s continental climate and elevated plateau location amplify daytime heating when high pressure and dry air masses persist, consistent with the ongoing late-summer warmth that has kept recent daily maxima in the low-to-mid 30s. Ensemble spread and minor differences in boundary-layer mixing or wind direction create the narrow uncertainty between 34°C and 35°C, while probabilities for 36°C or higher remain low absent stronger advection. Official AEMET observations on the day will determine resolution, with final model updates and any last adjustments to steering patterns the key near-term variables for traders.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes