Despite persistent rhetorical exchanges and military modernization on both sides, recent diplomatic measures have contained escalation risks in shared theaters such as northern Syria. A deconfliction hotline established after earlier incidents, combined with reported understandings on spheres of influence, has reduced the chance of unintended clashes. Turkey’s NATO membership, logistical challenges for sustained operations against a non-adjacent adversary, and Israel’s focus on other regional fronts further reinforce trader expectations that any rivalry will remain limited to proxy maneuvers and public posturing through 2026. These factors underpin the current 80.5% implied probability that no direct military encounter occurs before the end of 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourIsraël x Turquie affrontement militaire avant 2027 ?
Israël x Turquie affrontement militaire avant 2027 ?
Oui
$198,849 Vol.
$198,849 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$198,849 Vol.
$198,849 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite persistent rhetorical exchanges and military modernization on both sides, recent diplomatic measures have contained escalation risks in shared theaters such as northern Syria. A deconfliction hotline established after earlier incidents, combined with reported understandings on spheres of influence, has reduced the chance of unintended clashes. Turkey’s NATO membership, logistical challenges for sustained operations against a non-adjacent adversary, and Israel’s focus on other regional fronts further reinforce trader expectations that any rivalry will remain limited to proxy maneuvers and public posturing through 2026. These factors underpin the current 80.5% implied probability that no direct military encounter occurs before the end of 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$198,849Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite persistent rhetorical exchanges and military modernization on both sides, recent diplomatic measures have contained escalation risks in shared theaters such as northern Syria. A deconfliction hotline established after earlier incidents, combined with reported understandings on spheres of influence, has reduced the chance of unintended clashes. Turkey’s NATO membership, logistical challenges for sustained operations against a non-adjacent adversary, and Israel’s focus on other regional fronts further reinforce trader expectations that any rivalry will remain limited to proxy maneuvers and public posturing through 2026. These factors underpin the current 80.5% implied probability that no direct military encounter occurs before the end of 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$198,849Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite persistent rhetorical exchanges and military modernization on both sides, recent diplomatic measures have contained escalation risks in shared theaters such as northern Syria. A deconfliction hotline established after earlier incidents, combined with reported understandings on spheres of influence, has reduced the chance of unintended clashes. Turkey’s NATO membership, logistical challenges for sustained operations against a non-adjacent adversary, and Israel’s focus on other regional fronts further reinforce trader expectations that any rivalry will remain limited to proxy maneuvers and public posturing through 2026. These factors underpin the current 80.5% implied probability that no direct military encounter occurs before the end of 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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