Despite escalatory rhetoric from Turkish President Erdogan threatening military intervention akin to Libya or Karabakh amid Israel's Gaza and Lebanon operations, and Israeli alerts over Turkish military reinforcements near Syria and Gaza-bound aid flotillas intercepted in late April, traders price an 81% chance of no direct clash before 2027. This reflects de facto deconfliction in Syria's spheres of influence, Turkey's NATO membership deterring aggression, persistent bilateral trade via third parties, and logistical barriers to non-adjacent powers engaging directly. Turkish Defense Minister's March assessment of "low possibility" and analysts' view of domestic-focused posturing reinforce the consensus, with recent naval standoffs resolved short of violence.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourIsraël x Turquie affrontement militaire avant 2027 ?
Israël x Turquie affrontement militaire avant 2027 ?
Oui
$196,940 Vol.
$196,940 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$196,940 Vol.
$196,940 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite escalatory rhetoric from Turkish President Erdogan threatening military intervention akin to Libya or Karabakh amid Israel's Gaza and Lebanon operations, and Israeli alerts over Turkish military reinforcements near Syria and Gaza-bound aid flotillas intercepted in late April, traders price an 81% chance of no direct clash before 2027. This reflects de facto deconfliction in Syria's spheres of influence, Turkey's NATO membership deterring aggression, persistent bilateral trade via third parties, and logistical barriers to non-adjacent powers engaging directly. Turkish Defense Minister's March assessment of "low possibility" and analysts' view of domestic-focused posturing reinforce the consensus, with recent naval standoffs resolved short of violence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$196,940Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite escalatory rhetoric from Turkish President Erdogan threatening military intervention akin to Libya or Karabakh amid Israel's Gaza and Lebanon operations, and Israeli alerts over Turkish military reinforcements near Syria and Gaza-bound aid flotillas intercepted in late April, traders price an 81% chance of no direct clash before 2027. This reflects de facto deconfliction in Syria's spheres of influence, Turkey's NATO membership deterring aggression, persistent bilateral trade via third parties, and logistical barriers to non-adjacent powers engaging directly. Turkish Defense Minister's March assessment of "low possibility" and analysts' view of domestic-focused posturing reinforce the consensus, with recent naval standoffs resolved short of violence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$196,940Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite escalatory rhetoric from Turkish President Erdogan threatening military intervention akin to Libya or Karabakh amid Israel's Gaza and Lebanon operations, and Israeli alerts over Turkish military reinforcements near Syria and Gaza-bound aid flotillas intercepted in late April, traders price an 81% chance of no direct clash before 2027. This reflects de facto deconfliction in Syria's spheres of influence, Turkey's NATO membership deterring aggression, persistent bilateral trade via third parties, and logistical barriers to non-adjacent powers engaging directly. Turkish Defense Minister's March assessment of "low possibility" and analysts' view of domestic-focused posturing reinforce the consensus, with recent naval standoffs resolved short of violence.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes