El Niño conditions have officially emerged in the equatorial Pacific as of early June 2026, according to NOAA’s latest advisory, with sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Niño3.4 region already near or above +0.9 °C and models projecting further intensification into a strong or very strong event by late 2026. This development provides the main near-term boost to global mean surface temperatures, as El Niño releases stored oceanic heat into the atmosphere and typically elevates annual and seasonal anomalies by 0.1–0.2 °C above background warming trends. Combined with the long-term greenhouse-gas-driven rise that produced 2025 annual values near 1.19 °C above the 1951–1980 baseline, current conditions support trader consensus around the 1.15–1.19 °C bin for June 2026. Model ensembles show limited disagreement on the June timeframe, though peak El Niño impacts are expected later in the year; upcoming NOAA and NASA monthly releases will refine the exact anomaly and test whether early-summer observations remain within the leading range.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 67%
1.10–1.14ºC 20%
1.20–1.24ºC 11%
<1.10ºC 3.3%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 juin 2026
<1.10ºC
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
20%
1.15–1.19ºC
62%
1.20–1.24ºC
11%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 67%
1.10–1.14ºC 20%
1.20–1.24ºC 11%
<1.10ºC 3.3%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 juin 2026
<1.10ºC
$325 Vol.
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
$4,727 Vol.
20%
1.15–1.19ºC
$76 Vol.
62%
1.20–1.24ºC
$1,600 Vol.
11%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,290 Vol.
3%
>1.29ºC
$842 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions have officially emerged in the equatorial Pacific as of early June 2026, according to NOAA’s latest advisory, with sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Niño3.4 region already near or above +0.9 °C and models projecting further intensification into a strong or very strong event by late 2026. This development provides the main near-term boost to global mean surface temperatures, as El Niño releases stored oceanic heat into the atmosphere and typically elevates annual and seasonal anomalies by 0.1–0.2 °C above background warming trends. Combined with the long-term greenhouse-gas-driven rise that produced 2025 annual values near 1.19 °C above the 1951–1980 baseline, current conditions support trader consensus around the 1.15–1.19 °C bin for June 2026. Model ensembles show limited disagreement on the June timeframe, though peak El Niño impacts are expected later in the year; upcoming NOAA and NASA monthly releases will refine the exact anomaly and test whether early-summer observations remain within the leading range.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Marché ouvert : May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$8,860Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions have officially emerged in the equatorial Pacific as of early June 2026, according to NOAA’s latest advisory, with sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Niño3.4 region already near or above +0.9 °C and models projecting further intensification into a strong or very strong event by late 2026. This development provides the main near-term boost to global mean surface temperatures, as El Niño releases stored oceanic heat into the atmosphere and typically elevates annual and seasonal anomalies by 0.1–0.2 °C above background warming trends. Combined with the long-term greenhouse-gas-driven rise that produced 2025 annual values near 1.19 °C above the 1951–1980 baseline, current conditions support trader consensus around the 1.15–1.19 °C bin for June 2026. Model ensembles show limited disagreement on the June timeframe, though peak El Niño impacts are expected later in the year; upcoming NOAA and NASA monthly releases will refine the exact anomaly and test whether early-summer observations remain within the leading range.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$8,860Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...El Niño conditions have officially emerged in the equatorial Pacific as of early June 2026, according to NOAA’s latest advisory, with sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Niño3.4 region already near or above +0.9 °C and models projecting further intensification into a strong or very strong event by late 2026. This development provides the main near-term boost to global mean surface temperatures, as El Niño releases stored oceanic heat into the atmosphere and typically elevates annual and seasonal anomalies by 0.1–0.2 °C above background warming trends. Combined with the long-term greenhouse-gas-driven rise that produced 2025 annual values near 1.19 °C above the 1951–1980 baseline, current conditions support trader consensus around the 1.15–1.19 °C bin for June 2026. Model ensembles show limited disagreement on the June timeframe, though peak El Niño impacts are expected later in the year; upcoming NOAA and NASA monthly releases will refine the exact anomaly and test whether early-summer observations remain within the leading range.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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