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Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4?

icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4?

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25°C 34%

27°C 32%

26°C 18%

28°C 7%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

25°C 34%

27°C 32%

26°C 18%

28°C 7%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

22°C or below

$56 Vol.

1%

23°C

$51 Vol.

2%

24°C

$25 Vol.

3%

25°C

$762 Vol.

34%

26°C

$1,977 Vol.

23%

27°C

$22 Vol.

27%

28°C

$530 Vol.

7%

29°C

$55 Vol.

1%

30°C

$295 Vol.

1%

31°C

$250 Vol.

<1%

32°C or higher

$46 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s July 4 minimum temperature centers on 26–27°C as leading outcomes because short-term forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate overnight lows near 26°C under mainly cloudy skies with light rain patches, consistent with typical July nocturnal cooling in the region’s subtropical monsoon climate. Recent upper-air patterns and high humidity have limited radiative cooling, keeping minima close to seasonal averages around 26–27°C while the broader July–September outlook from HKO points to normal-to-above-normal temperatures overall. Model consensus shows little support for extremes below 25°C or above 28°C absent a sudden surge in cloud cover or stronger southerly flow, leaving the 25°C and 28°C brackets as secondary possibilities tied to forecast adjustments in the next 48 hours.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,070
Date de fin
4 juil. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jul 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s July 4 minimum temperature centers on 26–27°C as leading outcomes because short-term forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate overnight lows near 26°C under mainly cloudy skies with light rain patches, consistent with typical July nocturnal cooling in the region’s subtropical monsoon climate. Recent upper-air patterns and high humidity have limited radiative cooling, keeping minima close to seasonal averages around 26–27°C while the broader July–September outlook from HKO points to normal-to-above-normal temperatures overall. Model consensus shows little support for extremes below 25°C or above 28°C absent a sudden surge in cloud cover or stronger southerly flow, leaving the 25°C and 28°C brackets as secondary possibilities tied to forecast adjustments in the next 48 hours.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,070
Date de fin
4 juil. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jul 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Questions fréquentes

« Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 11 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 25°C » à 34%, suivi de « 27°C » à 27%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 34¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 34% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Jul 2, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4? », parcourez les 11 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4? » est « 25°C » à 34%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 34% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 27°C » à 27%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.