**Forecast models from the Met Office and BBC currently point to a minimum of around 18°C for London on July 29 under high pressure and southerly flow, with daytime highs reaching 32–33°C.** This setup favors clear skies that enhance overnight radiative cooling, though urban heat-island effects at official stations can moderate the lowest readings compared with rural sites. Ensemble spreads in boundary-layer moisture and cloud timing create the tight clustering of market-implied odds, particularly around the 15–19°C bins, as small shifts in nocturnal cooling rates could easily move the minimum across those thresholds. Historical July minima in London average near 16°C, so the current guidance sits slightly above normal while still leaving room for cooler outcomes if models trend drier or clearer. Traders are watching the next 48-hour model updates and any late adjustments to cloud cover for resolution signals.