**Manel Kape leads the market at 76.5% as the clear frontrunner for Joshua Van’s next flyweight title defense following Van’s unanimous decision win over Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 331 on September 19.** Kape’s five-fight win streak, including four straight knockouts, positions him as the top contender in the division, with analysts and the “wisdom of crowds” on Polymarket reflecting this consensus. Van’s recent form—back-to-back title wins over Pantoja and Tatsuro Taira—combined with Kape’s power-punching style and long-standing public rivalry (including Kape’s repeated calls for the matchup) drives the elevated probability. Lower-priced options such as Brandon Royval (13%) and Asu Almabayev (9%) represent realistic but less immediate alternatives based on prior head-to-head history and divisional rankings. Van’s post-fight comments about a pre-event AC joint injury add a minor note of uncertainty around timing, though the focus remains on a high-profile Kape bout as the next logical step.