Surging jet fuel prices, driven by geopolitical tensions including disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, represent the dominant catalyst pressuring airline balance sheets and shaping trader sentiment on potential Chapter 11 filings by year-end. Carriers with elevated leverage, such as JetBlue with roughly $9 billion in debt and recent credit downgrades, along with Frontier and Allegiant, face the steepest near-term risks from compressed margins and refinancing needs, while American Airlines contends with negative shareholders’ equity of approximately $3.7 billion despite lower implied probabilities. Spirit Airlines’ ongoing bankruptcy proceedings and failed bailout talks highlight liquidity shortfalls that could accelerate resolutions. Market participants monitor upcoming earnings releases, FOMC-influenced rate paths affecting borrowing costs, and any shifts in oil benchmarks above $90 per barrel, which could widen the gap between resilient majors like Delta and United—boasting strong free cash flow—and more vulnerable low-cost operators.