Diplomatic normalization with Israel has seen limited momentum since the Abraham Accords, as potential new recognitions by major Arab and Muslim-majority states remain conditioned on concrete advances toward a Palestinian state and de-escalation in ongoing regional conflicts. Saudi Arabia and others have reiterated that formal ties hinge on two-state outcomes, while US diplomatic pushes in 2026—including calls for Qatar, Pakistan, and additional partners to join normalization frameworks—have not yet produced announcements. Public opinion surveys across the Middle East continue to show low support for such steps, and no new formal recognitions by UN member states have occurred in 2026. Traders assessing probabilities by year-end will likely track any scheduled bilateral summits, ceasefire developments, or shifts in Palestinian Authority negotiations that could alter these barriers.