Toy Story 5’s franchise-record $160 million domestic opening in June, the year’s largest debut to date and second-biggest animated start ever, anchors trader consensus at 95% implied probability for third place among 2026 releases. Its Pixar brand strength, broad family appeal, and positive critical reception have sustained strong holds, placing it ahead of earlier benchmarks like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie while later tentpoles remain untested. Avengers: Doomsday, Dune: Messiah, and Spider-Man: Brand New Day could realistically upset the ranking with outsized December or holiday launches that exceed current tracking, though historical patterns favor established animated sequels in mid-year slots for consistent top-three finishes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourQuel film a le 3ème plus grand week-end d'ouverture en 2026 ?
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 3.6%
Avengers: Doomsday 2.4%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 1.3%
$30,493 Vol.
$30,493 Vol.
Toy Story 5
95%
Dune: Messiah
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
1%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
<1%
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 3.6%
Avengers: Doomsday 2.4%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 1.3%
$30,493 Vol.
$30,493 Vol.
Toy Story 5
95%
Dune: Messiah
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
1%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Marché ouvert : Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ET
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Toy Story 5’s franchise-record $160 million domestic opening in June, the year’s largest debut to date and second-biggest animated start ever, anchors trader consensus at 95% implied probability for third place among 2026 releases. Its Pixar brand strength, broad family appeal, and positive critical reception have sustained strong holds, placing it ahead of earlier benchmarks like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie while later tentpoles remain untested. Avengers: Doomsday, Dune: Messiah, and Spider-Man: Brand New Day could realistically upset the ranking with outsized December or holiday launches that exceed current tracking, though historical patterns favor established animated sequels in mid-year slots for consistent top-three finishes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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