Recent below-average forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season from Colorado State University form the main driver behind the 64.5% market-implied odds favoring no Category 4 landfall in the United States before 2027. The outlook projects 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and just two major systems, translating to only a 32% chance of a Category 3 or stronger landfall along the U.S. coastline—well below the long-term average of 43%. This follows the 2025 season, which produced no U.S. hurricane landfalls at all, the first such occurrence since 2015. With peak activity still months away and historical patterns showing Category 4 events remain relatively infrequent even in active years, traders appear to weigh the subdued activity and steering patterns that often keep intense storms offshore.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUn ouragan de catégorie 4 touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis avant 2027 ?
Un ouragan de catégorie 4 touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis avant 2027 ?
Oui
$327,934 Vol.
$327,934 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$327,934 Vol.
$327,934 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Recent below-average forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season from Colorado State University form the main driver behind the 64.5% market-implied odds favoring no Category 4 landfall in the United States before 2027. The outlook projects 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and just two major systems, translating to only a 32% chance of a Category 3 or stronger landfall along the U.S. coastline—well below the long-term average of 43%. This follows the 2025 season, which produced no U.S. hurricane landfalls at all, the first such occurrence since 2015. With peak activity still months away and historical patterns showing Category 4 events remain relatively infrequent even in active years, traders appear to weigh the subdued activity and steering patterns that often keep intense storms offshore.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Marché ouvert : Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$327,934Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Recent below-average forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season from Colorado State University form the main driver behind the 64.5% market-implied odds favoring no Category 4 landfall in the United States before 2027. The outlook projects 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and just two major systems, translating to only a 32% chance of a Category 3 or stronger landfall along the U.S. coastline—well below the long-term average of 43%. This follows the 2025 season, which produced no U.S. hurricane landfalls at all, the first such occurrence since 2015. With peak activity still months away and historical patterns showing Category 4 events remain relatively infrequent even in active years, traders appear to weigh the subdued activity and steering patterns that often keep intense storms offshore.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$327,934Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent below-average forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season from Colorado State University form the main driver behind the 64.5% market-implied odds favoring no Category 4 landfall in the United States before 2027. The outlook projects 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and just two major systems, translating to only a 32% chance of a Category 3 or stronger landfall along the U.S. coastline—well below the long-term average of 43%. This follows the 2025 season, which produced no U.S. hurricane landfalls at all, the first such occurrence since 2015. With peak activity still months away and historical patterns showing Category 4 events remain relatively infrequent even in active years, traders appear to weigh the subdued activity and steering patterns that often keep intense storms offshore.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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