Apple's established annual release cadence for flagship iPhones, with the iPhone 18 expected in September 2026 following the typical pattern, underpins the 98.5% market-implied probability for a 2026 launch. Traders see no credible signs of postponement from supply chain reports, component sourcing, or internal timelines, and recent developer ecosystem activity aligns with standard preparation cycles. While near-certain consensus reflects this historical reliability and absence of major disruptions, realistic risks remain around unforeseen manufacturing or quality issues that could shift a global rollout by weeks, or rare regulatory hurdles in key markets that might delay availability without altering the core release year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
99% chance
$173,240 Vol.
$173,240 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Oui
99% chance
$173,240 Vol.
$173,240 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence for flagship iPhones, with the iPhone 18 expected in September 2026 following the typical pattern, underpins the 98.5% market-implied probability for a 2026 launch. Traders see no credible signs of postponement from supply chain reports, component sourcing, or internal timelines, and recent developer ecosystem activity aligns with standard preparation cycles. While near-certain consensus reflects this historical reliability and absence of major disruptions, realistic risks remain around unforeseen manufacturing or quality issues that could shift a global rollout by weeks, or rare regulatory hurdles in key markets that might delay availability without altering the core release year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$173,240Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence for flagship iPhones, with the iPhone 18 expected in September 2026 following the typical pattern, underpins the 98.5% market-implied probability for a 2026 launch. Traders see no credible signs of postponement from supply chain reports, component sourcing, or internal timelines, and recent developer ecosystem activity aligns with standard preparation cycles. While near-certain consensus reflects this historical reliability and absence of major disruptions, realistic risks remain around unforeseen manufacturing or quality issues that could shift a global rollout by weeks, or rare regulatory hurdles in key markets that might delay availability without altering the core release year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$173,240Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established annual release cadence for flagship iPhones, with the iPhone 18 expected in September 2026 following the typical pattern, underpins the 98.5% market-implied probability for a 2026 launch. Traders see no credible signs of postponement from supply chain reports, component sourcing, or internal timelines, and recent developer ecosystem activity aligns with standard preparation cycles. While near-certain consensus reflects this historical reliability and absence of major disruptions, realistic risks remain around unforeseen manufacturing or quality issues that could shift a global rollout by weeks, or rare regulatory hurdles in key markets that might delay availability without altering the core release year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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