Apple's entrenched annual release cadence, with new iPhone models typically announced in September and shipping shortly after, underpins the 98.6% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders weigh decades of consistent execution, established supply chains, and ongoing development of incremental hardware and software features such as advanced AI integration in the large language model ecosystem. While near-certain consensus reflects this track record, realistic disruptions remain possible from major supply-chain delays, certification hurdles in key markets, or unforeseen technical setbacks in next-generation components. No major regulatory interventions have surfaced to alter timelines as of late August 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
99% chance
$173,242 Vol.
$173,242 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Oui
99% chance
$173,242 Vol.
$173,242 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's entrenched annual release cadence, with new iPhone models typically announced in September and shipping shortly after, underpins the 98.6% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders weigh decades of consistent execution, established supply chains, and ongoing development of incremental hardware and software features such as advanced AI integration in the large language model ecosystem. While near-certain consensus reflects this track record, realistic disruptions remain possible from major supply-chain delays, certification hurdles in key markets, or unforeseen technical setbacks in next-generation components. No major regulatory interventions have surfaced to alter timelines as of late August 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$173,242Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's entrenched annual release cadence, with new iPhone models typically announced in September and shipping shortly after, underpins the 98.6% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders weigh decades of consistent execution, established supply chains, and ongoing development of incremental hardware and software features such as advanced AI integration in the large language model ecosystem. While near-certain consensus reflects this track record, realistic disruptions remain possible from major supply-chain delays, certification hurdles in key markets, or unforeseen technical setbacks in next-generation components. No major regulatory interventions have surfaced to alter timelines as of late August 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$173,242Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's entrenched annual release cadence, with new iPhone models typically announced in September and shipping shortly after, underpins the 98.6% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders weigh decades of consistent execution, established supply chains, and ongoing development of incremental hardware and software features such as advanced AI integration in the large language model ecosystem. While near-certain consensus reflects this track record, realistic disruptions remain possible from major supply-chain delays, certification hurdles in key markets, or unforeseen technical setbacks in next-generation components. No major regulatory interventions have surfaced to alter timelines as of late August 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes