US intelligence assessments from March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders do not currently plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and lack a fixed unification timeline, preferring to advance conditions for eventual control short of force. This view underpins the 88.5% probability traders assign to no invasion by end-2027. Beijing continues routine gray-zone operations including coast guard patrols and aerial activity around the island, though ADIZ incursions declined notably in 2026. Taiwan has responded with record defense budgets, expanded drone procurement, and recent joint exercises testing attack drones and missiles. An amphibious operation remains viewed as high-risk given logistical demands and potential external involvement, while 2027 functions primarily as a PLA capability benchmark rather than an operational deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
12% chance
$3,225,438 Vol.
$3,225,438 Vol.
31 déc. 2027
Gagnez 3.25%
Oui
12% chance
$3,225,438 Vol.
$3,225,438 Vol.
31 déc. 2027
Gagnez 3.25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments from March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders do not currently plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and lack a fixed unification timeline, preferring to advance conditions for eventual control short of force. This view underpins the 88.5% probability traders assign to no invasion by end-2027. Beijing continues routine gray-zone operations including coast guard patrols and aerial activity around the island, though ADIZ incursions declined notably in 2026. Taiwan has responded with record defense budgets, expanded drone procurement, and recent joint exercises testing attack drones and missiles. An amphibious operation remains viewed as high-risk given logistical demands and potential external involvement, while 2027 functions primarily as a PLA capability benchmark rather than an operational deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$3,225,438Date de fin
1 janv. 2028Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments from March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders do not currently plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and lack a fixed unification timeline, preferring to advance conditions for eventual control short of force. This view underpins the 88.5% probability traders assign to no invasion by end-2027. Beijing continues routine gray-zone operations including coast guard patrols and aerial activity around the island, though ADIZ incursions declined notably in 2026. Taiwan has responded with record defense budgets, expanded drone procurement, and recent joint exercises testing attack drones and missiles. An amphibious operation remains viewed as high-risk given logistical demands and potential external involvement, while 2027 functions primarily as a PLA capability benchmark rather than an operational deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$3,225,438Date de fin
1 janv. 2028Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments from March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders do not currently plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and lack a fixed unification timeline, preferring to advance conditions for eventual control short of force. This view underpins the 88.5% probability traders assign to no invasion by end-2027. Beijing continues routine gray-zone operations including coast guard patrols and aerial activity around the island, though ADIZ incursions declined notably in 2026. Taiwan has responded with record defense budgets, expanded drone procurement, and recent joint exercises testing attack drones and missiles. An amphibious operation remains viewed as high-risk given logistical demands and potential external involvement, while 2027 functions primarily as a PLA capability benchmark rather than an operational deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes