Mbappé’s substantial edge in the World Cup goals head-to-head stems from his proven scoring pedigree as France’s central striker, historical output across multiple tournaments, and established role in a deep attacking unit. Despite both players recovering from April hamstring injuries, Yamal faces greater uncertainty over early fitness and minutes for Spain’s group-stage opener, limiting his immediate impact as a wide creator. Mbappé’s superior career goal rate, penalty involvement, and leadership position within Les Bleus further support trader consensus at 75.5% implied probability, though Spain’s collective strength and Yamal’s rapid development could narrow the gap if he reaches full sharpness later in the expanded 48-team format.